UEFA Europa League· League Stage - 6· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.18 | 0.21–2.14 | 0.00–2.40 | 1.41 | 0.55–2.27 | 0.31–2.52 | 2.590.26–4.92 |
| Shots on target | 3.23 | 1.38–5.09 | 0.88–5.59 | 4.12 | 2.41–5.83 | 1.94–6.30 | 7.352.82–11.88 |
| Total shots | 9.69 | 5.99–13.40 | 4.96–14.43 | 9.70 | 6.32–13.08 | 5.39–14.01 | 19.3910.35–28.44 |
| Shots in box | 7.07 | 4.56–9.59 | 3.69–10.46 | 7.52 | 5.22–9.82 | 4.42–10.62 | 14.608.12–21.08 |
| Blocked shots | 2.90 | 1.32–4.48 | 0.78–5.02 | 3.28 | 1.87–4.70 | 1.38–5.18 | 6.182.16–10.20 |
| Corners | 4.64 | 2.44–6.85 | 1.84–7.44 | 4.34 | 2.36–6.32 | 1.82–6.86 | 8.983.67–14.30 |
| Possession % | 45.84 | 39.52–52.16 | 37.93–53.75 | 55.36 | 49.05–61.68 | 47.45–63.28 | — |
| Passes | 365 | 300–431 | 282–448 | 502 | 437–566 | 419–584 | 867702–1032 |
| Pass accuracy % | 74.69 | 70.47–78.90 | 69.17–80.20 | 75.76 | 71.26–80.27 | 69.93–81.60 | — |
| Fouls | 12.01 | 9.16–14.87 | 8.27–15.76 | 13.47 | 10.52–16.42 | 9.61–17.33 | 25.4817.88–33.09 |
| Offsides | 1.70 | 0.49–2.91 | 0.14–3.25 | 1.92 | 0.76–3.09 | 0.43–3.42 | 3.620.57–6.67 |
| Yellow cards | 1.87 | 0.82–2.93 | 0.54–3.20 | 1.98 | 0.86–3.10 | 0.57–3.39 | 3.851.12–6.59 |
| Red cards | 0.07 | 0.00–0.22 | 0.00–0.37 | 0.08 | 0.00–0.28 | 0.00–0.42 | 0.150.00–0.79 |
| GK saves | 2.22 | 0.81–3.64 | 0.42–4.03 | 2.22 | 0.67–3.78 | 0.24–4.21 | 4.450.66–8.24 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
31%
26%
42%
Shots on target
30%
14%
56%
Total shots
45%
46%
Shots in box
40%
49%
Blocked shots
36%
16%
48%
Corners
47%
13%
39%
Fouls
35%
57%
Offsides
35%
22%
44%
Yellow cards
37%
21%
42%
Red cards
86%
GK saves
40%
20%
40%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+