UEFA Europa League· League Stage - 2· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2.28 | 1.32–3.25 | 1.06–3.51 | 0.79 | 0.00–1.65 | 0.00–1.90 | 3.080.75–5.41 |
| Shots on target | 7.40 | 5.54–9.26 | 5.05–9.76 | 2.86 | 1.16–4.57 | 0.69–5.04 | 10.275.73–14.80 |
| Total shots | 19.00 | 15.30–22.70 | 14.27–23.73 | 8.30 | 4.92–11.68 | 3.99–12.61 | 27.3018.26–36.34 |
| Shots in box | 12.99 | 10.47–15.50 | 9.61–16.37 | 4.91 | 2.61–7.21 | 1.81–8.01 | 17.9011.42–24.38 |
| Blocked shots | 4.81 | 3.23–6.40 | 2.70–6.93 | 1.76 | 0.35–3.18 | 0.00–3.67 | 6.582.56–10.60 |
| Corners | 7.34 | 5.13–9.55 | 4.54–10.14 | 3.15 | 1.17–5.12 | 0.63–5.66 | 10.495.17–15.80 |
| Possession % | 63.84 | 57.52–70.16 | 55.92–71.75 | 36.15 | 29.83–42.47 | 28.24–44.07 | — |
| Passes | 585 | 519–650 | 502–667 | 337 | 272–401 | 255–419 | 921756–1087 |
| Pass accuracy % | 85.56 | 81.35–89.78 | 80.05–91.08 | 72.26 | 67.76–76.77 | 66.43–78.10 | — |
| Fouls | 9.31 | 6.45–12.17 | 5.57–13.05 | 11.73 | 8.78–14.67 | 7.87–15.59 | 21.0413.43–28.64 |
| Offsides | 2.19 | 0.98–3.40 | 0.64–3.74 | 1.63 | 0.46–2.79 | 0.13–3.12 | 3.820.77–6.86 |
| Yellow cards | 1.33 | 0.28–2.39 | 0.01–2.66 | 2.16 | 1.04–3.28 | 0.75–3.57 | 3.490.75–6.23 |
| Red cards | 0.03 | 0.00–0.18 | 0.00–0.33 | 0.08 | 0.00–0.27 | 0.00–0.41 | 0.110.00–0.75 |
| GK saves | 2.13 | 0.72–3.55 | 0.33–3.94 | 3.90 | 2.35–5.46 | 1.92–5.89 | 6.042.25–9.83 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
71%
18%
Shots on target
90%
Total shots
98%
Shots in box
97%
Blocked shots
84%
Corners
88%
Fouls
26%
66%
Offsides
51%
20%
29%
Yellow cards
23%
21%
56%
Red cards
90%
GK saves
17%
13%
70%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+