UEFA Europa League· League Stage - 4· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.95 | 0.98–2.91 | 0.72–3.17 | 1.18 | 0.32–2.04 | 0.07–2.28 | 3.120.79–5.45 |
| Shots on target | 6.63 | 4.78–8.49 | 4.28–8.99 | 3.61 | 1.90–5.31 | 1.43–5.78 | 10.245.71–14.77 |
| Total shots | 17.12 | 13.42–20.83 | 12.39–21.86 | 9.39 | 6.01–12.76 | 5.08–13.70 | 26.5117.47–35.55 |
| Shots in box | 11.63 | 9.12–14.15 | 8.25–15.01 | 6.34 | 4.04–8.64 | 3.24–9.44 | 17.9711.49–24.45 |
| Blocked shots | 4.46 | 2.88–6.04 | 2.34–6.58 | 2.80 | 1.39–4.22 | 0.90–4.70 | 7.263.24–11.28 |
| Corners | 6.35 | 4.14–8.55 | 3.55–9.15 | 3.70 | 1.72–5.68 | 1.18–6.21 | 10.054.73–15.36 |
| Possession % | 54.21 | 47.89–60.53 | 46.30–62.12 | 45.42 | 39.10–51.74 | 37.51–53.34 | — |
| Passes | 562 | 497–627 | 479–645 | 462 | 398–527 | 380–544 | 1024859–1190 |
| Pass accuracy % | 81.05 | 76.83–85.26 | 75.53–86.57 | 81.17 | 76.66–85.68 | 75.33–87.01 | — |
| Fouls | 11.10 | 8.25–13.96 | 7.36–14.85 | 11.73 | 8.79–14.68 | 7.87–15.59 | 22.8415.23–30.44 |
| Offsides | 2.01 | 0.80–3.22 | 0.46–3.57 | 1.32 | 0.16–2.48 | 0.00–2.81 | 3.330.28–6.38 |
| Yellow cards | 1.87 | 0.81–2.92 | 0.54–3.19 | 2.12 | 1.00–3.24 | 0.71–3.53 | 3.991.25–6.73 |
| Red cards | 0.03 | 0.00–0.19 | 0.00–0.34 | 0.08 | 0.00–0.27 | 0.00–0.42 | 0.110.00–0.76 |
| GK saves | 2.37 | 0.95–3.78 | 0.57–4.17 | 3.55 | 2.00–5.10 | 1.56–5.54 | 5.922.13–9.71 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
55%
22%
23%
Shots on target
79%
13%
Total shots
92%
Shots in box
87%
Blocked shots
66%
21%
Corners
75%
16%
Fouls
41%
51%
Offsides
54%
22%
25%
Yellow cards
35%
21%
45%
Red cards
89%
GK saves
24%
15%
61%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+