UEFA Europa League· League Stage - 4· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2.66 | 1.69–3.62 | 1.43–3.88 | 0.83 | 0.00–1.69 | 0.00–1.93 | 3.481.15–5.81 |
| Shots on target | 6.96 | 5.10–8.82 | 4.60–9.31 | 2.41 | 0.71–4.12 | 0.24–4.59 | 9.374.84–13.90 |
| Total shots | 16.88 | 13.18–20.58 | 12.14–21.61 | 5.19 | 1.81–8.57 | 0.88–9.50 | 22.0713.02–31.11 |
| Shots in box | 12.87 | 10.35–15.38 | 9.49–16.25 | 4.78 | 2.48–7.08 | 1.68–7.88 | 17.6411.16–24.12 |
| Blocked shots | 4.62 | 3.04–6.21 | 2.51–6.74 | 2.23 | 0.82–3.65 | 0.33–4.13 | 6.862.84–10.88 |
| Corners | 6.82 | 4.61–9.02 | 4.02–9.62 | 2.93 | 0.95–4.91 | 0.41–5.45 | 9.754.43–15.07 |
| Possession % | 59.72 | 53.40–66.04 | 51.80–67.63 | 40.21 | 33.89–46.53 | 32.30–48.13 | — |
| Passes | 533 | 468–599 | 450–616 | 376 | 311–440 | 293–458 | 909744–1074 |
| Pass accuracy % | 83.93 | 79.72–88.15 | 78.41–89.45 | 77.41 | 72.91–81.92 | 71.58–83.25 | — |
| Fouls | 12.68 | 9.83–15.54 | 8.94–16.43 | 11.79 | 8.84–14.73 | 7.92–15.65 | 24.4716.86–32.08 |
| Offsides | 1.95 | 0.74–3.16 | 0.39–3.50 | 0.96 | 0.00–2.12 | 0.00–2.45 | 2.910.00–5.95 |
| Yellow cards | 1.54 | 0.49–2.60 | 0.21–2.87 | 2.23 | 1.11–3.35 | 0.82–3.64 | 3.771.04–6.51 |
| Red cards | 0.04 | 0.00–0.19 | 0.00–0.34 | 0.11 | 0.00–0.30 | 0.00–0.45 | 0.150.00–0.79 |
| GK saves | 1.97 | 0.56–3.39 | 0.17–3.78 | 3.59 | 2.04–5.15 | 1.61–5.58 | 5.561.77–9.35 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
76%
15%
Shots on target
91%
Total shots
99%
Shots in box
97%
Blocked shots
77%
Corners
86%
Fouls
53%
39%
Offsides
60%
22%
18%
Yellow cards
26%
20%
53%
Red cards
87%
GK saves
18%
14%
68%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+