UEFA Europa League· League Stage - 3· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.10 | 0.13–2.06 | 0.00–2.32 | 1.43 | 0.57–2.29 | 0.32–2.53 | 2.520.19–4.85 |
| Shots on target | 4.38 | 2.52–6.23 | 2.02–6.73 | 4.15 | 2.45–5.86 | 1.98–6.33 | 8.534.00–13.06 |
| Total shots | 12.65 | 8.95–16.36 | 7.92–17.39 | 11.43 | 8.05–14.81 | 7.12–15.74 | 24.0915.04–33.13 |
| Shots in box | 7.41 | 4.89–9.92 | 4.02–10.79 | 8.01 | 5.71–10.32 | 4.92–11.11 | 15.428.94–21.90 |
| Blocked shots | 3.20 | 1.61–4.78 | 1.08–5.32 | 3.35 | 1.94–4.77 | 1.45–5.25 | 6.552.53–10.57 |
| Corners | 4.62 | 2.42–6.83 | 1.82–7.42 | 4.76 | 2.78–6.73 | 2.24–7.27 | 9.384.06–14.70 |
| Possession % | 43.79 | 37.47–50.10 | 35.87–51.70 | 58.20 | 51.88–64.52 | 50.28–66.12 | — |
| Passes | 394 | 329–459 | 311–477 | 533 | 469–598 | 451–616 | 927762–1093 |
| Pass accuracy % | 76.10 | 71.89–80.32 | 70.59–81.62 | 85.58 | 81.07–90.09 | 79.74–91.42 | — |
| Fouls | 11.98 | 9.13–14.84 | 8.24–15.73 | 10.70 | 7.76–13.65 | 6.84–14.56 | 22.6815.08–30.29 |
| Offsides | 2.24 | 1.03–3.45 | 0.68–3.79 | 1.57 | 0.41–2.73 | 0.08–3.07 | 3.810.76–6.86 |
| Yellow cards | 2.06 | 1.00–3.12 | 0.73–3.39 | 2.03 | 0.91–3.15 | 0.62–3.44 | 4.091.35–6.83 |
| Red cards | 0.04 | 0.00–0.20 | 0.00–0.35 | 0.07 | 0.00–0.26 | 0.00–0.40 | 0.110.00–0.75 |
| GK saves | 2.85 | 1.43–4.26 | 1.04–4.65 | 2.61 | 1.06–4.17 | 0.63–4.60 | 5.461.67–9.25 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
29%
26%
45%
Shots on target
46%
14%
40%
Total shots
56%
36%
Shots in box
39%
51%
Blocked shots
40%
16%
44%
Corners
42%
13%
45%
Fouls
56%
35%
Offsides
53%
20%
27%
Yellow cards
40%
20%
39%
Red cards
90%
GK saves
45%
17%
37%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+