UEFA Europa League· League Stage - 7· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.73 | 0.77–2.69 | 0.51–2.95 | 0.96 | 0.10–1.81 | 0.00–2.06 | 2.690.36–5.02 |
| Shots on target | 5.22 | 3.36–7.07 | 2.86–7.57 | 3.49 | 1.79–5.20 | 1.32–5.67 | 8.714.18–13.24 |
| Total shots | 15.47 | 11.76–19.17 | 10.73–20.20 | 10.33 | 6.96–13.71 | 6.02–14.64 | 25.8016.76–34.85 |
| Shots in box | 11.00 | 8.49–13.52 | 7.62–14.38 | 6.36 | 4.06–8.66 | 3.26–9.46 | 17.3610.88–23.84 |
| Blocked shots | 4.12 | 2.54–5.70 | 2.00–6.24 | 2.87 | 1.46–4.29 | 0.97–4.77 | 6.992.97–11.01 |
| Corners | 5.55 | 3.34–7.75 | 2.75–8.35 | 4.31 | 2.33–6.28 | 1.79–6.82 | 9.854.54–15.17 |
| Possession % | 49.31 | 42.99–55.62 | 41.39–57.22 | 50.14 | 43.82–56.46 | 42.22–58.05 | — |
| Passes | 460 | 394–525 | 377–543 | 472 | 408–537 | 390–555 | 932767–1097 |
| Pass accuracy % | 77.47 | 73.25–81.69 | 71.95–82.99 | 82.03 | 77.53–86.54 | 76.20–87.87 | — |
| Fouls | 11.56 | 8.71–14.42 | 7.82–15.31 | 10.41 | 7.47–13.36 | 6.55–14.28 | 21.9814.37–29.58 |
| Offsides | 1.94 | 0.73–3.15 | 0.38–3.49 | 1.33 | 0.17–2.50 | 0.00–2.83 | 3.270.22–6.32 |
| Yellow cards | 1.24 | 0.19–2.30 | 0.00–2.57 | 1.74 | 0.62–2.86 | 0.33–3.15 | 2.980.24–5.72 |
| Red cards | 0.05 | 0.00–0.20 | 0.00–0.35 | 0.07 | 0.00–0.27 | 0.00–0.41 | 0.120.00–0.76 |
| GK saves | 2.29 | 0.88–3.71 | 0.49–4.09 | 3.23 | 1.67–4.78 | 1.24–5.21 | 5.521.73–9.31 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
56%
24%
21%
Shots on target
66%
22%
Total shots
82%
13%
Shots in box
84%
Blocked shots
61%
14%
25%
Corners
59%
29%
Fouls
55%
36%
Offsides
52%
22%
26%
Yellow cards
27%
24%
49%
Red cards
89%
GK saves
27%
16%
57%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+