UEFA Europa League· League Stage - 4· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.24 | 0.27–2.20 | 0.01–2.46 | 1.28 | 0.42–2.14 | 0.18–2.39 | 2.520.19–4.85 |
| Shots on target | 4.91 | 3.06–6.77 | 2.56–7.27 | 4.40 | 2.70–6.11 | 2.23–6.58 | 9.324.78–13.85 |
| Total shots | 13.08 | 9.38–16.79 | 8.35–17.82 | 10.83 | 7.45–14.21 | 6.52–15.14 | 23.9114.87–32.95 |
| Shots in box | 7.92 | 5.41–10.44 | 4.54–11.30 | 7.30 | 5.00–9.60 | 4.20–10.40 | 15.228.74–21.70 |
| Blocked shots | 3.09 | 1.51–4.68 | 0.97–5.21 | 2.71 | 1.30–4.13 | 0.81–4.61 | 5.811.79–9.82 |
| Corners | 5.20 | 2.99–7.40 | 2.40–8.00 | 4.32 | 2.34–6.30 | 1.80–6.83 | 9.524.20–14.83 |
| Possession % | 48.83 | 42.51–55.15 | 40.91–56.74 | 51.78 | 45.46–58.09 | 43.86–59.69 | — |
| Passes | 386 | 321–452 | 303–469 | 422 | 358–487 | 340–504 | 808643–973 |
| Pass accuracy % | 73.58 | 69.36–77.79 | 68.06–79.09 | 72.09 | 67.58–76.60 | 66.25–77.93 | — |
| Fouls | 13.31 | 10.45–16.17 | 9.57–17.05 | 12.64 | 9.69–15.59 | 8.78–16.50 | 25.9518.35–33.56 |
| Offsides | 1.68 | 0.47–2.89 | 0.13–3.24 | 1.88 | 0.72–3.05 | 0.39–3.38 | 3.570.52–6.61 |
| Yellow cards | 2.01 | 0.95–3.06 | 0.68–3.33 | 1.72 | 0.59–2.84 | 0.30–3.13 | 3.720.98–6.46 |
| Red cards | 0.05 | 0.00–0.20 | 0.00–0.35 | 0.09 | 0.00–0.28 | 0.00–0.42 | 0.130.00–0.77 |
| GK saves | 2.50 | 1.09–3.91 | 0.70–4.30 | 2.76 | 1.20–4.31 | 0.77–4.74 | 5.261.47–9.05 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
35%
27%
38%
Shots on target
50%
13%
37%
Total shots
64%
29%
Shots in box
51%
39%
Blocked shots
48%
17%
35%
Corners
55%
33%
Fouls
51%
41%
Offsides
35%
22%
43%
Yellow cards
45%
21%
34%
Red cards
88%
GK saves
37%
18%
45%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+