UEFA Europa League· League Stage - 3· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.78 | 0.82–2.74 | 0.56–3.00 | 1.48 | 0.62–2.34 | 0.38–2.59 | 3.260.93–5.59 |
| Shots on target | 5.62 | 3.77–7.48 | 3.27–7.98 | 3.93 | 2.23–5.64 | 1.76–6.11 | 9.565.03–14.09 |
| Total shots | 15.85 | 12.14–19.55 | 11.11–20.58 | 11.14 | 7.76–14.52 | 6.83–15.45 | 26.9817.94–36.03 |
| Shots in box | 11.15 | 8.64–13.67 | 7.77–14.53 | 7.82 | 5.52–10.12 | 4.72–10.92 | 18.9712.50–25.45 |
| Blocked shots | 4.53 | 2.95–6.11 | 2.41–6.65 | 3.25 | 1.84–4.67 | 1.35–5.15 | 7.783.77–11.80 |
| Corners | 5.52 | 3.32–7.73 | 2.72–8.32 | 4.64 | 2.66–6.61 | 2.12–7.15 | 10.164.84–15.48 |
| Possession % | 51.97 | 45.65–58.28 | 44.05–59.88 | 49.83 | 43.51–56.15 | 41.91–57.74 | — |
| Passes | 435 | 370–500 | 352–518 | 433 | 368–498 | 351–515 | 868703–1033 |
| Pass accuracy % | 75.03 | 70.81–79.24 | 69.51–80.54 | 73.27 | 68.77–77.78 | 67.44–79.11 | — |
| Fouls | 13.07 | 10.22–15.93 | 9.33–16.82 | 10.91 | 7.97–13.86 | 7.05–14.78 | 23.9916.38–31.59 |
| Offsides | 1.75 | 0.54–2.96 | 0.20–3.30 | 1.70 | 0.53–2.86 | 0.20–3.19 | 3.450.40–6.49 |
| Yellow cards | 1.82 | 0.77–2.88 | 0.49–3.15 | 1.97 | 0.85–3.09 | 0.56–3.38 | 3.791.06–6.53 |
| Red cards | 0.05 | 0.00–0.20 | 0.00–0.36 | 0.08 | 0.00–0.27 | 0.00–0.42 | 0.130.00–0.77 |
| GK saves | 2.59 | 1.18–4.01 | 0.79–4.40 | 3.20 | 1.65–4.76 | 1.22–5.19 | 5.792.00–9.58 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
45%
23%
32%
Shots on target
65%
24%
Total shots
79%
16%
Shots in box
74%
19%
Blocked shots
61%
13%
26%
Corners
55%
33%
Fouls
63%
29%
Offsides
40%
22%
38%
Yellow cards
36%
21%
42%
Red cards
88%
GK saves
32%
16%
52%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+