UEFA Europa League· League Stage - 3· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.87 | 0.91–2.83 | 0.65–3.09 | 1.21 | 0.36–2.07 | 0.11–2.32 | 3.080.76–5.41 |
| Shots on target | 6.10 | 4.25–7.96 | 3.75–8.46 | 3.95 | 2.24–5.66 | 1.78–6.13 | 10.055.52–14.58 |
| Total shots | 16.75 | 13.04–20.45 | 12.01–21.48 | 11.63 | 8.25–15.01 | 7.32–15.94 | 28.3819.33–37.42 |
| Shots in box | 11.23 | 8.72–13.75 | 7.85–14.61 | 7.64 | 5.34–9.94 | 4.54–10.74 | 18.8712.39–25.35 |
| Blocked shots | 4.62 | 3.03–6.20 | 2.50–6.74 | 2.98 | 1.57–4.39 | 1.08–4.88 | 7.603.58–11.62 |
| Corners | 6.99 | 4.79–9.20 | 4.19–9.79 | 3.81 | 1.83–5.79 | 1.30–6.33 | 10.805.49–16.12 |
| Possession % | 50.93 | 44.61–57.25 | 43.02–58.85 | 48.01 | 41.70–54.33 | 40.10–55.93 | — |
| Passes | 460 | 394–525 | 377–543 | 458 | 394–523 | 376–541 | 918753–1083 |
| Pass accuracy % | 82.09 | 77.88–86.31 | 76.58–87.61 | 76.35 | 71.84–80.85 | 70.51–82.18 | — |
| Fouls | 11.22 | 8.37–14.08 | 7.48–14.97 | 11.99 | 9.05–14.94 | 8.13–15.85 | 23.2115.61–30.82 |
| Offsides | 2.03 | 0.83–3.24 | 0.48–3.59 | 1.48 | 0.32–2.65 | 0.00–2.98 | 3.520.47–6.57 |
| Yellow cards | 1.63 | 0.57–2.68 | 0.30–2.95 | 2.05 | 0.93–3.17 | 0.64–3.46 | 3.680.94–6.42 |
| Red cards | 0.05 | 0.00–0.20 | 0.00–0.35 | 0.08 | 0.00–0.27 | 0.00–0.42 | 0.130.00–0.77 |
| GK saves | 2.87 | 1.45–4.28 | 1.06–4.67 | 3.10 | 1.55–4.66 | 1.12–5.09 | 5.972.18–9.76 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
53%
23%
25%
Shots on target
70%
20%
Total shots
81%
14%
Shots in box
76%
17%
Blocked shots
66%
22%
Corners
79%
Fouls
40%
52%
Offsides
50%
21%
28%
Yellow cards
31%
21%
48%
Red cards
89%
GK saves
38%
17%
45%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+