UEFA Europa League· League Stage - 5· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2.43 | 1.47–3.39 | 1.21–3.65 | 0.72 | 0.00–1.58 | 0.00–1.82 | 3.150.82–5.48 |
| Shots on target | 7.22 | 5.37–9.08 | 4.87–9.58 | 1.91 | 0.21–3.62 | 0.00–4.09 | 9.144.60–13.67 |
| Total shots | 19.54 | 15.84–23.24 | 14.80–24.27 | 5.78 | 2.41–9.16 | 1.48–10.09 | 25.3216.28–34.37 |
| Shots in box | 13.07 | 10.55–15.58 | 9.69–16.45 | 4.06 | 1.76–6.36 | 0.96–7.16 | 17.1310.65–23.61 |
| Blocked shots | 5.30 | 3.71–6.88 | 3.18–7.41 | 1.99 | 0.58–3.41 | 0.09–3.89 | 7.293.27–11.31 |
| Corners | 8.14 | 5.93–10.34 | 5.34–10.94 | 2.47 | 0.50–4.45 | 0.00–4.99 | 10.615.30–15.93 |
| Possession % | 64.20 | 57.89–70.52 | 56.29–72.12 | 35.47 | 29.15–41.78 | 27.55–43.38 | — |
| Passes | 581 | 516–647 | 498–664 | 333 | 268–398 | 251–415 | 914749–1079 |
| Pass accuracy % | 88.48 | 84.26–92.69 | 82.96–93.99 | 77.44 | 72.93–81.94 | 71.60–83.27 | — |
| Fouls | 13.14 | 10.28–16.00 | 9.40–16.88 | 10.79 | 7.85–13.74 | 6.93–14.66 | 23.9316.33–31.54 |
| Offsides | 2.06 | 0.85–3.27 | 0.51–3.62 | 1.49 | 0.33–2.65 | 0.00–2.99 | 3.550.51–6.60 |
| Yellow cards | 1.54 | 0.48–2.60 | 0.21–2.87 | 1.96 | 0.84–3.08 | 0.55–3.37 | 3.500.76–6.24 |
| Red cards | 0.03 | 0.00–0.18 | 0.00–0.33 | 0.08 | 0.00–0.27 | 0.00–0.41 | 0.100.00–0.75 |
| GK saves | 1.70 | 0.28–3.11 | 0.00–3.50 | 4.44 | 2.89–6.00 | 2.46–6.43 | 6.142.35–9.93 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
75%
16%
Shots on target
95%
Total shots
100%
Shots in box
98%
Blocked shots
86%
Corners
95%
Fouls
65%
28%
Offsides
51%
21%
28%
Yellow cards
31%
22%
48%
Red cards
90%
GK saves
82%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+