UEFA Europa League· League Stage - 7· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.63 | 0.67–2.59 | 0.41–2.85 | 1.01 | 0.15–1.87 | 0.00–2.12 | 2.640.31–4.97 |
| Shots on target | 4.95 | 3.09–6.80 | 2.59–7.30 | 3.27 | 1.57–4.98 | 1.10–5.45 | 8.223.69–12.75 |
| Total shots | 13.80 | 10.09–17.50 | 9.06–18.53 | 9.42 | 6.04–12.80 | 5.11–13.73 | 23.2214.18–32.26 |
| Shots in box | 9.13 | 6.61–11.65 | 5.75–12.51 | 6.94 | 4.63–9.24 | 3.84–10.03 | 16.079.59–22.54 |
| Blocked shots | 3.63 | 2.05–5.22 | 1.52–5.75 | 3.00 | 1.59–4.42 | 1.10–4.90 | 6.642.62–10.66 |
| Corners | 6.32 | 4.12–8.53 | 3.52–9.12 | 4.32 | 2.34–6.30 | 1.80–6.84 | 10.645.33–15.96 |
| Possession % | 55.96 | 49.64–62.28 | 48.05–63.87 | 46.45 | 40.13–52.77 | 38.54–54.37 | — |
| Passes | 446 | 380–511 | 363–529 | 389 | 324–454 | 307–471 | 835670–1000 |
| Pass accuracy % | 81.57 | 77.35–85.78 | 76.05–87.08 | 78.15 | 73.64–82.66 | 72.31–83.99 | — |
| Fouls | 11.87 | 9.02–14.73 | 8.13–15.62 | 14.43 | 11.48–17.37 | 10.57–18.29 | 26.3018.70–33.91 |
| Offsides | 2.09 | 0.88–3.30 | 0.53–3.64 | 1.42 | 0.26–2.58 | 0.00–2.92 | 3.510.46–6.56 |
| Yellow cards | 1.64 | 0.58–2.69 | 0.31–2.97 | 2.11 | 0.99–3.24 | 0.70–3.53 | 3.751.01–6.49 |
| Red cards | 0.04 | 0.00–0.19 | 0.00–0.34 | 0.08 | 0.00–0.28 | 0.00–0.42 | 0.120.00–0.76 |
| GK saves | 2.33 | 0.92–3.75 | 0.53–4.14 | 2.98 | 1.43–4.54 | 1.00–4.97 | 5.321.53–9.11 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
52%
25%
23%
Shots on target
66%
22%
Total shots
79%
15%
Shots in box
66%
25%
Blocked shots
52%
15%
33%
Corners
68%
22%
Fouls
28%
66%
Offsides
53%
21%
26%
Yellow cards
30%
21%
49%
Red cards
89%
GK saves
31%
17%
52%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+