UEFA Europa League· League Stage - 1· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.09 | 0.13–2.06 | 0.00–2.32 | 1.61 | 0.75–2.47 | 0.51–2.72 | 2.710.38–5.04 |
| Shots on target | 2.68 | 0.83–4.54 | 0.33–5.04 | 4.04 | 2.33–5.75 | 1.86–6.21 | 6.722.19–11.25 |
| Total shots | 9.76 | 6.06–13.47 | 5.03–14.50 | 12.52 | 9.14–15.89 | 8.21–16.82 | 22.2813.24–31.32 |
| Shots in box | 6.23 | 3.71–8.75 | 2.85–9.61 | 8.99 | 6.69–11.29 | 5.89–12.08 | 15.228.74–21.70 |
| Blocked shots | 2.57 | 0.98–4.15 | 0.45–4.68 | 3.74 | 2.33–5.16 | 1.84–5.64 | 6.312.29–10.33 |
| Corners | 4.91 | 2.71–7.12 | 2.11–7.71 | 5.63 | 3.65–7.61 | 3.11–8.15 | 10.545.23–15.86 |
| Possession % | 49.17 | 42.86–55.49 | 41.26–57.09 | 52.30 | 45.98–58.62 | 44.38–60.21 | — |
| Passes | 380 | 315–446 | 297–463 | 430 | 366–495 | 348–512 | 811646–976 |
| Pass accuracy % | 75.82 | 71.60–80.03 | 70.30–81.34 | 79.08 | 74.57–83.59 | 73.24–84.92 | — |
| Fouls | 13.55 | 10.69–16.41 | 9.81–17.29 | 12.20 | 9.26–15.15 | 8.34–16.07 | 25.7518.15–33.36 |
| Offsides | 2.33 | 1.12–3.54 | 0.77–3.88 | 1.96 | 0.80–3.12 | 0.46–3.45 | 4.291.24–7.34 |
| Yellow cards | 1.87 | 0.81–2.92 | 0.54–3.19 | 1.84 | 0.72–2.96 | 0.43–3.25 | 3.700.96–6.44 |
| Red cards | 0.06 | 0.00–0.21 | 0.00–0.36 | 0.09 | 0.00–0.28 | 0.00–0.42 | 0.140.00–0.79 |
| GK saves | 2.54 | 1.13–3.95 | 0.74–4.34 | 2.74 | 1.19–4.29 | 0.75–4.73 | 5.281.49–9.07 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
26%
25%
49%
Shots on target
23%
14%
63%
Total shots
24%
68%
Shots in box
20%
72%
Blocked shots
25%
15%
60%
Corners
35%
53%
Fouls
57%
36%
Offsides
47%
20%
33%
Yellow cards
40%
22%
39%
Red cards
87%
GK saves
38%
18%
45%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+