UEFA Europa League· League Stage - 2· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.58 | 0.62–2.54 | 0.36–2.80 | 1.07 | 0.21–1.93 | 0.00–2.17 | 2.650.32–4.98 |
| Shots on target | 5.06 | 3.20–6.92 | 2.71–7.42 | 2.98 | 1.27–4.69 | 0.80–5.15 | 8.043.51–12.57 |
| Total shots | 14.81 | 11.11–18.52 | 10.08–19.55 | 8.74 | 5.37–12.12 | 4.43–13.05 | 23.5614.51–32.60 |
| Shots in box | 10.89 | 8.37–13.40 | 7.51–14.27 | 6.41 | 4.11–8.72 | 3.32–9.51 | 17.3010.82–23.78 |
| Blocked shots | 4.63 | 3.05–6.22 | 2.52–6.75 | 2.59 | 1.18–4.01 | 0.69–4.49 | 7.233.21–11.25 |
| Corners | 6.14 | 3.94–8.35 | 3.34–8.94 | 4.10 | 2.12–6.07 | 1.58–6.61 | 10.244.92–15.55 |
| Possession % | 59.04 | 52.73–65.36 | 51.13–66.96 | 40.82 | 34.50–47.14 | 32.90–48.74 | — |
| Passes | 526 | 460–591 | 443–609 | 367 | 303–432 | 285–449 | 893728–1058 |
| Pass accuracy % | 77.94 | 73.73–82.16 | 72.43–83.46 | 68.59 | 64.08–73.09 | 62.75–74.42 | — |
| Fouls | 10.04 | 7.18–12.90 | 6.30–13.78 | 12.35 | 9.41–15.30 | 8.49–16.22 | 22.3914.79–30.00 |
| Offsides | 1.44 | 0.23–2.65 | 0.00–2.99 | 1.97 | 0.80–3.13 | 0.47–3.46 | 3.410.36–6.46 |
| Yellow cards | 1.60 | 0.55–2.66 | 0.28–2.93 | 1.93 | 0.81–3.05 | 0.52–3.34 | 3.530.79–6.27 |
| Red cards | 0.04 | 0.00–0.19 | 0.00–0.34 | 0.06 | 0.00–0.25 | 0.00–0.40 | 0.100.00–0.74 |
| GK saves | 2.22 | 0.80–3.63 | 0.41–4.02 | 2.99 | 1.43–4.54 | 1.00–4.97 | 5.211.42–8.99 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
49%
25%
26%
Shots on target
71%
18%
Total shots
88%
Shots in box
83%
Blocked shots
72%
17%
Corners
69%
21%
Fouls
28%
65%
Offsides
28%
22%
50%
Yellow cards
32%
22%
46%
Red cards
91%
GK saves
29%
17%
54%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+