UEFA Europa League· League Stage - 5· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.17 | 0.20–2.13 | 0.00–2.39 | 2.09 | 1.23–2.95 | 0.99–3.20 | 3.260.93–5.59 |
| Shots on target | 4.31 | 2.46–6.17 | 1.96–6.67 | 5.76 | 4.05–7.47 | 3.58–7.94 | 10.075.54–14.61 |
| Total shots | 12.41 | 8.70–16.11 | 7.67–17.14 | 16.44 | 13.06–19.81 | 12.13–20.74 | 28.8419.80–37.89 |
| Shots in box | 7.55 | 5.03–10.06 | 4.17–10.93 | 11.77 | 9.47–14.07 | 8.67–14.87 | 19.3212.84–25.79 |
| Blocked shots | 3.57 | 1.99–5.15 | 1.45–5.69 | 4.35 | 2.94–5.77 | 2.45–6.25 | 7.923.90–11.94 |
| Corners | 4.64 | 2.43–6.84 | 1.84–7.44 | 6.13 | 4.15–8.11 | 3.61–8.65 | 10.775.45–16.08 |
| Possession % | 43.40 | 37.08–49.71 | 35.48–51.31 | 56.78 | 50.46–63.10 | 48.86–64.69 | — |
| Passes | 400 | 334–465 | 317–483 | 514 | 449–579 | 432–596 | 914749–1079 |
| Pass accuracy % | 67.33 | 63.11–71.54 | 61.81–72.85 | 73.86 | 69.35–78.37 | 68.02–79.70 | — |
| Fouls | 10.84 | 7.98–13.69 | 7.09–14.58 | 11.57 | 8.63–14.52 | 7.71–15.44 | 22.4114.80–30.01 |
| Offsides | 2.02 | 0.81–3.23 | 0.46–3.57 | 2.18 | 1.02–3.35 | 0.69–3.68 | 4.201.15–7.25 |
| Yellow cards | 1.89 | 0.83–2.94 | 0.56–3.22 | 1.81 | 0.69–2.93 | 0.40–3.22 | 3.700.96–6.44 |
| Red cards | 0.06 | 0.00–0.21 | 0.00–0.37 | 0.06 | 0.00–0.25 | 0.00–0.40 | 0.120.00–0.76 |
| GK saves | 4.00 | 2.58–5.41 | 2.19–5.80 | 2.30 | 0.74–3.85 | 0.31–4.28 | 6.302.51–10.09 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
21%
21%
59%
Shots on target
27%
62%
Total shots
20%
74%
Shots in box
14%
80%
Blocked shots
32%
14%
54%
Corners
27%
62%
Fouls
40%
52%
Offsides
37%
20%
43%
Yellow cards
41%
22%
38%
Red cards
89%
GK saves
68%
13%
19%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+