UEFA Europa League· League Stage - 6· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.95 | 0.99–2.91 | 0.73–3.17 | 0.93 | 0.07–1.79 | 0.00–2.03 | 2.880.55–5.21 |
| Shots on target | 6.24 | 4.38–8.09 | 3.88–8.59 | 3.14 | 1.43–4.85 | 0.96–5.31 | 9.374.84–13.91 |
| Total shots | 17.36 | 13.66–21.07 | 12.63–22.10 | 8.34 | 4.96–11.72 | 4.03–12.65 | 25.7116.66–34.75 |
| Shots in box | 11.98 | 9.46–14.50 | 8.60–15.36 | 5.78 | 3.48–8.08 | 2.69–8.88 | 17.7611.29–24.24 |
| Blocked shots | 4.29 | 2.70–5.87 | 2.17–6.41 | 2.55 | 1.13–3.96 | 0.64–4.45 | 6.832.81–10.85 |
| Corners | 6.35 | 4.15–8.56 | 3.55–9.15 | 4.03 | 2.05–6.01 | 1.51–6.54 | 10.385.07–15.70 |
| Possession % | 52.08 | 45.76–58.40 | 44.16–59.99 | 46.05 | 39.73–52.37 | 38.13–53.96 | — |
| Passes | 430 | 365–495 | 347–513 | 416 | 351–480 | 334–498 | 846680–1011 |
| Pass accuracy % | 80.94 | 76.73–85.16 | 75.43–86.46 | 81.52 | 77.01–86.02 | 75.68–87.35 | — |
| Fouls | 11.16 | 8.30–14.02 | 7.42–14.90 | 10.35 | 7.40–13.29 | 6.48–14.21 | 21.5113.90–29.11 |
| Offsides | 1.93 | 0.72–3.14 | 0.37–3.48 | 1.39 | 0.22–2.55 | 0.00–2.88 | 3.310.26–6.36 |
| Yellow cards | 1.20 | 0.14–2.25 | 0.00–2.52 | 1.85 | 0.73–2.97 | 0.44–3.26 | 3.040.30–5.78 |
| Red cards | 0.03 | 0.00–0.18 | 0.00–0.34 | 0.09 | 0.00–0.28 | 0.00–0.42 | 0.120.00–0.76 |
| GK saves | 1.87 | 0.45–3.28 | 0.07–3.67 | 3.54 | 1.98–5.09 | 1.55–5.52 | 5.401.62–9.19 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
61%
21%
17%
Shots on target
80%
Total shots
96%
Shots in box
91%
Blocked shots
68%
19%
Corners
71%
19%
Fouls
53%
39%
Offsides
50%
22%
28%
Yellow cards
25%
23%
53%
Red cards
89%
GK saves
17%
14%
69%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+