UEFA Europa League· League Stage - 5· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2.33 | 1.37–3.29 | 1.11–3.55 | 0.69 | 0.00–1.55 | 0.00–1.80 | 3.020.69–5.35 |
| Shots on target | 6.68 | 4.83–8.54 | 4.33–9.04 | 1.70 | 0.00–3.40 | 0.00–3.87 | 8.383.85–12.91 |
| Total shots | 16.44 | 12.73–20.14 | 11.70–21.17 | 4.97 | 1.59–8.35 | 0.66–9.28 | 21.4112.36–30.45 |
| Shots in box | 12.23 | 9.71–14.74 | 8.85–15.61 | 4.76 | 2.46–7.06 | 1.66–7.86 | 16.9910.51–23.47 |
| Blocked shots | 4.24 | 2.66–5.82 | 2.12–6.36 | 2.13 | 0.71–3.54 | 0.23–4.03 | 6.372.35–10.39 |
| Corners | 7.43 | 5.23–9.64 | 4.63–10.23 | 3.46 | 1.48–5.44 | 0.95–5.98 | 10.895.58–16.21 |
| Possession % | 63.30 | 56.98–69.61 | 55.38–71.21 | 36.05 | 29.73–42.37 | 28.13–43.97 | — |
| Passes | 531 | 466–596 | 448–614 | 297 | 233–362 | 215–380 | 828663–993 |
| Pass accuracy % | 82.91 | 78.70–87.13 | 77.39–88.43 | 70.78 | 66.27–75.28 | 64.94–76.61 | — |
| Fouls | 11.65 | 8.80–14.51 | 7.91–15.40 | 9.95 | 7.00–12.89 | 6.08–13.81 | 21.6014.00–29.21 |
| Offsides | 2.28 | 1.07–3.49 | 0.72–3.83 | 1.73 | 0.56–2.89 | 0.23–3.22 | 4.010.96–7.05 |
| Yellow cards | 1.42 | 0.36–2.48 | 0.09–2.75 | 1.91 | 0.79–3.03 | 0.50–3.32 | 3.330.59–6.07 |
| Red cards | 0.03 | 0.00–0.18 | 0.00–0.34 | 0.09 | 0.00–0.28 | 0.00–0.43 | 0.120.00–0.76 |
| GK saves | 1.76 | 0.34–3.17 | 0.00–3.56 | 3.60 | 2.05–5.16 | 1.62–5.59 | 5.361.57–9.15 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
74%
17%
Shots on target
95%
Total shots
99%
Shots in box
96%
Blocked shots
74%
15%
Corners
86%
Fouls
60%
32%
Offsides
51%
20%
29%
Yellow cards
29%
22%
49%
Red cards
89%
GK saves
15%
13%
72%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+