UEFA Europa League· League Stage - 1· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.07 | 0.10–2.03 | 0.00–2.29 | 1.34 | 0.48–2.20 | 0.23–2.44 | 2.400.07–4.73 |
| Shots on target | 4.01 | 2.15–5.87 | 1.65–6.36 | 4.51 | 2.80–6.22 | 2.33–6.69 | 8.523.99–13.05 |
| Total shots | 11.94 | 8.23–15.64 | 7.20–16.67 | 13.27 | 9.89–16.64 | 8.96–17.58 | 25.2016.16–34.25 |
| Shots in box | 8.24 | 5.73–10.76 | 4.86–11.62 | 8.05 | 5.75–10.35 | 4.95–11.15 | 16.299.82–22.77 |
| Blocked shots | 2.97 | 1.39–4.56 | 0.85–5.09 | 4.31 | 2.89–5.72 | 2.40–6.21 | 7.283.26–11.30 |
| Corners | 4.61 | 2.40–6.81 | 1.81–7.41 | 5.00 | 3.03–6.98 | 2.49–7.52 | 9.614.30–14.93 |
| Possession % | 40.88 | 34.56–47.19 | 32.96–48.79 | 59.32 | 53.00–65.63 | 51.40–67.23 | — |
| Passes | 341 | 276–407 | 258–424 | 502 | 437–566 | 420–584 | 843678–1008 |
| Pass accuracy % | 67.10 | 62.89–71.32 | 61.59–72.62 | 80.31 | 75.80–84.82 | 74.47–86.15 | — |
| Fouls | 11.64 | 8.78–14.50 | 7.90–15.38 | 11.49 | 8.55–14.44 | 7.63–15.36 | 23.1415.53–30.74 |
| Offsides | 1.79 | 0.58–3.00 | 0.24–3.35 | 1.14 | 0.00–2.31 | 0.00–2.64 | 2.940.00–5.98 |
| Yellow cards | 2.04 | 0.98–3.09 | 0.71–3.36 | 2.00 | 0.88–3.12 | 0.59–3.41 | 4.041.30–6.78 |
| Red cards | 0.04 | 0.00–0.19 | 0.00–0.35 | 0.07 | 0.00–0.26 | 0.00–0.40 | 0.110.00–0.75 |
| GK saves | 2.83 | 1.41–4.24 | 1.02–4.63 | 2.68 | 1.13–4.24 | 0.70–4.67 | 5.511.72–9.30 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
30%
27%
43%
Shots on target
36%
14%
50%
Total shots
36%
57%
Shots in box
47%
43%
Blocked shots
25%
13%
62%
Corners
38%
49%
Fouls
47%
45%
Offsides
53%
23%
24%
Yellow cards
40%
21%
39%
Red cards
90%
GK saves
44%
17%
39%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+