UEFA Europa League· League Stage - 5· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.20 | 0.24–2.16 | 0.00–2.42 | 1.98 | 1.12–2.83 | 0.87–3.08 | 3.180.85–5.51 |
| Shots on target | 4.44 | 2.58–6.29 | 2.08–6.79 | 5.68 | 3.98–7.39 | 3.51–7.86 | 10.125.59–14.65 |
| Total shots | 13.73 | 10.03–17.44 | 9.00–18.47 | 15.65 | 12.27–19.03 | 11.34–19.96 | 29.3920.34–38.43 |
| Shots in box | 8.65 | 6.14–11.17 | 5.27–12.03 | 11.35 | 9.05–13.66 | 8.26–14.45 | 20.0113.53–26.49 |
| Blocked shots | 3.83 | 2.25–5.41 | 1.71–5.95 | 3.58 | 2.17–5.00 | 1.68–5.48 | 7.413.39–11.43 |
| Corners | 4.82 | 2.62–7.03 | 2.02–7.62 | 6.27 | 4.29–8.25 | 3.75–8.78 | 11.095.77–16.41 |
| Possession % | 37.74 | 31.42–44.06 | 29.83–45.65 | 62.02 | 55.71–68.34 | 54.11–69.94 | — |
| Passes | 367 | 302–433 | 284–450 | 615 | 551–680 | 533–698 | 983818–1148 |
| Pass accuracy % | 75.61 | 71.40–79.83 | 70.10–81.13 | 79.16 | 74.65–83.67 | 73.32–85.00 | — |
| Fouls | 10.65 | 7.79–13.51 | 6.91–14.39 | 12.53 | 9.58–15.47 | 8.67–16.39 | 23.1815.57–30.78 |
| Offsides | 1.84 | 0.63–3.05 | 0.29–3.39 | 1.80 | 0.64–2.96 | 0.31–3.30 | 3.640.59–6.69 |
| Yellow cards | 1.61 | 0.56–2.67 | 0.28–2.94 | 1.85 | 0.73–2.97 | 0.44–3.26 | 3.470.73–6.21 |
| Red cards | 0.05 | 0.00–0.20 | 0.00–0.36 | 0.10 | 0.00–0.29 | 0.00–0.44 | 0.150.00–0.79 |
| GK saves | 4.19 | 2.77–5.60 | 2.38–5.99 | 3.02 | 1.47–4.58 | 1.04–5.01 | 7.213.42–11.00 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
23%
22%
55%
Shots on target
29%
59%
Total shots
33%
60%
Shots in box
24%
69%
Blocked shots
46%
15%
39%
Corners
28%
61%
Fouls
31%
61%
Offsides
40%
22%
38%
Yellow cards
34%
22%
44%
Red cards
87%
GK saves
60%
14%
27%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+