UEFA Europa Conference League· League Stage - 2· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.22 | 0.26–2.18 | 0.00–2.44 | 1.05 | 0.19–1.91 | 0.00–2.16 | 2.270.00–4.60 |
| Shots on target | 4.48 | 2.62–6.34 | 2.13–6.84 | 3.68 | 1.98–5.39 | 1.51–5.86 | 8.173.63–12.70 |
| Total shots | 11.76 | 8.06–15.46 | 7.03–16.50 | 10.89 | 7.51–14.27 | 6.58–15.20 | 22.6513.61–31.70 |
| Shots in box | 8.12 | 5.60–10.63 | 4.73–11.50 | 6.62 | 4.32–8.92 | 3.52–9.72 | 14.738.25–21.21 |
| Blocked shots | 3.77 | 2.18–5.35 | 1.65–5.89 | 2.87 | 1.46–4.29 | 0.97–4.77 | 6.642.62–10.66 |
| Corners | 4.80 | 2.59–7.00 | 2.00–7.60 | 3.83 | 1.85–5.81 | 1.31–6.34 | 8.623.31–13.94 |
| Possession % | 55.88 | 49.57–62.20 | 47.97–63.80 | 43.81 | 37.49–50.13 | 35.89–51.72 | — |
| Passes | 567 | 502–633 | 484–650 | 429 | 365–494 | 347–511 | 996831–1162 |
| Pass accuracy % | 76.57 | 72.35–80.78 | 71.05–82.09 | 68.69 | 64.18–73.20 | 62.85–74.53 | — |
| Fouls | 10.74 | 7.89–13.60 | 7.00–14.49 | 12.41 | 9.46–15.35 | 8.54–16.27 | 23.1515.55–30.76 |
| Offsides | 1.83 | 0.62–3.04 | 0.27–3.38 | 1.32 | 0.15–2.48 | 0.00–2.81 | 3.140.09–6.19 |
| Yellow cards | 1.84 | 0.79–2.90 | 0.51–3.17 | 2.16 | 1.04–3.28 | 0.75–3.57 | 4.001.27–6.74 |
| Red cards | 0.08 | 0.00–0.23 | 0.00–0.38 | 0.07 | 0.00–0.27 | 0.00–0.41 | 0.150.00–0.79 |
| GK saves | 2.44 | 1.02–3.85 | 0.64–4.24 | 2.36 | 0.80–3.91 | 0.37–4.34 | 4.801.01–8.59 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
40%
28%
32%
Shots on target
54%
14%
32%
Total shots
53%
39%
Shots in box
60%
30%
Blocked shots
56%
15%
29%
Corners
56%
13%
31%
Fouls
33%
60%
Offsides
49%
23%
28%
Yellow cards
34%
20%
46%
Red cards
87%
GK saves
42%
19%
39%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+