UEFA Europa Conference League· League Stage - 2· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.23 | 0.26–2.19 | 0.00–2.45 | 1.85 | 0.99–2.71 | 0.75–2.96 | 3.080.75–5.41 |
| Shots on target | 3.69 | 1.83–5.54 | 1.33–6.04 | 5.42 | 3.71–7.13 | 3.24–7.60 | 9.114.57–13.64 |
| Total shots | 10.71 | 7.00–14.41 | 5.97–15.44 | 12.93 | 9.56–16.31 | 8.63–17.24 | 23.6414.60–32.69 |
| Shots in box | 8.15 | 5.63–10.66 | 4.77–11.53 | 9.40 | 7.10–11.71 | 6.31–12.50 | 17.5511.07–24.03 |
| Blocked shots | 3.12 | 1.54–4.71 | 1.00–5.24 | 3.54 | 2.13–4.96 | 1.64–5.44 | 6.662.65–10.68 |
| Corners | 4.00 | 1.79–6.20 | 1.20–6.80 | 4.77 | 2.79–6.75 | 2.26–7.29 | 8.773.45–14.09 |
| Possession % | 51.43 | 45.12–57.75 | 43.52–59.35 | 49.81 | 43.49–56.13 | 41.89–57.73 | — |
| Passes | 454 | 389–519 | 371–537 | 433 | 368–497 | 351–515 | 887722–1052 |
| Pass accuracy % | 77.88 | 73.67–82.10 | 72.37–83.40 | 74.85 | 70.35–79.36 | 69.02–80.69 | — |
| Fouls | 11.26 | 8.40–14.12 | 7.52–15.00 | 13.57 | 10.63–16.52 | 9.71–17.44 | 24.8417.23–32.44 |
| Offsides | 1.82 | 0.61–3.03 | 0.27–3.37 | 1.84 | 0.67–3.00 | 0.34–3.33 | 3.660.61–6.70 |
| Yellow cards | 1.91 | 0.85–2.96 | 0.58–3.24 | 2.28 | 1.16–3.40 | 0.87–3.69 | 4.191.45–6.93 |
| Red cards | 0.07 | 0.00–0.23 | 0.00–0.38 | 0.11 | 0.00–0.30 | 0.00–0.45 | 0.180.00–0.83 |
| GK saves | 3.20 | 1.79–4.62 | 1.40–5.01 | 2.69 | 1.14–4.24 | 0.71–4.68 | 5.892.10–9.68 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
25%
23%
52%
Shots on target
23%
66%
Total shots
29%
64%
Shots in box
34%
57%
Blocked shots
36%
16%
49%
Corners
33%
13%
54%
Fouls
29%
64%
Offsides
39%
22%
39%
Yellow cards
33%
20%
47%
Red cards
84%
GK saves
50%
16%
34%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+