UEFA Europa Conference League· League Stage - 3· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2.15 | 1.18–3.11 | 0.92–3.37 | 0.75 | 0.00–1.61 | 0.00–1.86 | 2.900.57–5.23 |
| Shots on target | 5.95 | 4.09–7.80 | 3.59–8.30 | 2.91 | 1.21–4.62 | 0.74–5.09 | 8.864.33–13.39 |
| Total shots | 15.52 | 11.82–19.23 | 10.79–20.26 | 8.12 | 4.74–11.50 | 3.81–12.43 | 23.6414.60–32.69 |
| Shots in box | 11.49 | 8.97–14.00 | 8.11–14.87 | 5.37 | 3.07–7.67 | 2.27–8.47 | 16.8610.38–23.34 |
| Blocked shots | 4.70 | 3.11–6.28 | 2.58–6.82 | 2.21 | 0.79–3.62 | 0.30–4.11 | 6.902.88–10.92 |
| Corners | 5.92 | 3.71–8.12 | 3.12–8.72 | 3.30 | 1.32–5.28 | 0.79–5.82 | 9.223.90–14.54 |
| Possession % | 59.59 | 53.28–65.91 | 51.68–67.51 | 39.92 | 33.60–46.24 | 32.00–47.83 | — |
| Passes | 535 | 470–600 | 452–618 | 357 | 292–421 | 274–439 | 892726–1057 |
| Pass accuracy % | 75.18 | 70.96–79.39 | 69.66–80.69 | 71.96 | 67.46–76.47 | 66.13–77.80 | — |
| Fouls | 12.04 | 9.18–14.89 | 8.29–15.78 | 10.31 | 7.37–13.26 | 6.45–14.18 | 22.3514.74–29.96 |
| Offsides | 2.23 | 1.02–3.44 | 0.68–3.79 | 1.55 | 0.39–2.71 | 0.05–3.04 | 3.780.73–6.83 |
| Yellow cards | 1.56 | 0.50–2.62 | 0.23–2.89 | 2.24 | 1.12–3.36 | 0.83–3.65 | 3.801.06–6.54 |
| Red cards | 0.03 | 0.00–0.18 | 0.00–0.33 | 0.08 | 0.00–0.27 | 0.00–0.41 | 0.100.00–0.75 |
| GK saves | 2.27 | 0.85–3.68 | 0.46–4.07 | 3.48 | 1.92–5.03 | 1.49–5.46 | 5.741.96–9.53 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
69%
19%
Shots on target
80%
Total shots
92%
Shots in box
92%
Blocked shots
78%
Corners
76%
15%
Fouls
60%
32%
Offsides
53%
20%
27%
Yellow cards
27%
20%
53%
Red cards
90%
GK saves
23%
15%
61%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+