UEFA Europa Conference League· League Stage - 4· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.92 | 0.95–2.88 | 0.69–3.14 | 0.87 | 0.01–1.73 | 0.00–1.98 | 2.790.46–5.12 |
| Shots on target | 3.96 | 2.10–5.81 | 1.60–6.31 | 2.54 | 0.83–4.25 | 0.36–4.71 | 6.501.97–11.03 |
| Total shots | 12.14 | 8.44–15.84 | 7.41–16.87 | 8.13 | 4.75–11.51 | 3.82–12.44 | 20.2711.23–29.31 |
| Shots in box | 9.23 | 6.71–11.75 | 5.85–12.61 | 5.74 | 3.44–8.05 | 2.65–8.84 | 14.978.50–21.45 |
| Blocked shots | 3.70 | 2.12–5.29 | 1.59–5.82 | 2.79 | 1.37–4.20 | 0.89–4.69 | 6.492.47–10.51 |
| Corners | 5.51 | 3.31–7.72 | 2.71–8.31 | 3.08 | 1.10–5.06 | 0.57–5.60 | 8.593.28–13.91 |
| Possession % | 55.22 | 48.90–61.54 | 47.30–63.13 | 44.40 | 38.08–50.72 | 36.49–52.32 | — |
| Passes | 482 | 417–548 | 399–565 | 364 | 300–429 | 282–447 | 847682–1012 |
| Pass accuracy % | 77.29 | 73.07–81.51 | 71.77–82.81 | 70.80 | 66.30–75.31 | 64.97–76.64 | — |
| Fouls | 12.59 | 9.73–15.45 | 8.85–16.33 | 13.95 | 11.00–16.89 | 10.09–17.81 | 26.5418.93–34.14 |
| Offsides | 1.49 | 0.28–2.70 | 0.00–3.05 | 1.71 | 0.55–2.88 | 0.22–3.21 | 3.210.16–6.26 |
| Yellow cards | 1.52 | 0.46–2.57 | 0.19–2.84 | 1.98 | 0.86–3.10 | 0.57–3.39 | 3.500.76–6.23 |
| Red cards | 0.05 | 0.00–0.20 | 0.00–0.36 | 0.05 | 0.00–0.25 | 0.00–0.39 | 0.110.00–0.75 |
| GK saves | 2.40 | 0.98–3.81 | 0.59–4.20 | 3.13 | 1.58–4.68 | 1.14–5.12 | 5.531.74–9.31 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
62%
22%
16%
Shots on target
64%
14%
22%
Total shots
78%
16%
Shots in box
78%
15%
Blocked shots
56%
15%
29%
Corners
75%
15%
Fouls
36%
57%
Offsides
34%
23%
43%
Yellow cards
30%
22%
49%
Red cards
90%
GK saves
30%
17%
54%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+