UEFA Europa Conference League· League Stage - 5· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.02 | 0.06–1.98 | 0.00–2.25 | 1.79 | 0.93–2.65 | 0.69–2.90 | 2.820.49–5.14 |
| Shots on target | 2.26 | 0.40–4.11 | 0.00–4.61 | 3.65 | 1.95–5.36 | 1.48–5.83 | 5.911.38–10.44 |
| Total shots | 7.99 | 4.29–11.70 | 3.26–12.73 | 9.65 | 6.27–13.02 | 5.34–13.95 | 17.648.60–26.68 |
| Shots in box | 7.43 | 4.91–9.94 | 4.05–10.81 | 8.05 | 5.75–10.35 | 4.96–11.15 | 15.489.00–21.96 |
| Blocked shots | 3.12 | 1.53–4.70 | 1.00–5.24 | 3.58 | 2.17–4.99 | 1.68–5.48 | 6.702.68–10.72 |
| Corners | 3.66 | 1.45–5.86 | 0.86–6.46 | 4.67 | 2.70–6.65 | 2.16–7.19 | 8.333.02–13.65 |
| Possession % | 47.14 | 40.82–53.45 | 39.22–55.05 | 53.92 | 47.61–60.24 | 46.01–61.84 | — |
| Passes | 362 | 297–428 | 279–445 | 387 | 322–451 | 305–469 | 749584–914 |
| Pass accuracy % | 75.88 | 71.66–80.09 | 70.36–81.39 | 76.39 | 71.88–80.89 | 70.55–82.22 | — |
| Fouls | 14.30 | 11.44–17.16 | 10.56–18.04 | 16.81 | 13.87–19.76 | 12.95–20.68 | 31.1123.51–38.72 |
| Offsides | 2.21 | 1.00–3.42 | 0.65–3.76 | 1.73 | 0.56–2.89 | 0.23–3.22 | 3.940.89–6.98 |
| Yellow cards | 2.04 | 0.98–3.09 | 0.71–3.36 | 1.88 | 0.76–3.00 | 0.47–3.29 | 3.911.18–6.65 |
| Red cards | 0.05 | 0.00–0.21 | 0.00–0.36 | 0.10 | 0.00–0.29 | 0.00–0.44 | 0.150.00–0.80 |
| GK saves | 2.53 | 1.12–3.95 | 0.73–4.34 | 2.44 | 0.88–3.99 | 0.45–4.42 | 4.971.18–8.76 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
21%
23%
55%
Shots on target
21%
14%
64%
Total shots
30%
61%
Shots in box
39%
51%
Blocked shots
35%
16%
49%
Corners
30%
13%
57%
Fouls
29%
64%
Offsides
49%
20%
31%
Yellow cards
43%
21%
37%
Red cards
86%
GK saves
42%
18%
39%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+