UEFA Europa Conference League· League Stage - 1· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.24 | 0.28–2.20 | 0.02–2.46 | 1.47 | 0.61–2.32 | 0.36–2.57 | 2.700.37–5.03 |
| Shots on target | 2.63 | 0.78–4.49 | 0.28–4.99 | 3.84 | 2.13–5.54 | 1.66–6.01 | 6.471.94–11.00 |
| Total shots | 8.92 | 5.22–12.62 | 4.19–13.66 | 10.16 | 6.78–13.54 | 5.85–14.47 | 19.0810.03–28.12 |
| Shots in box | 7.65 | 5.14–10.17 | 4.27–11.03 | 6.68 | 4.37–8.98 | 3.58–9.77 | 14.337.85–20.81 |
| Blocked shots | 3.21 | 1.62–4.79 | 1.09–5.33 | 3.49 | 2.08–4.91 | 1.59–5.39 | 6.702.68–10.72 |
| Corners | 3.36 | 1.15–5.56 | 0.56–6.16 | 4.40 | 2.42–6.38 | 1.88–6.91 | 7.752.44–13.07 |
| Possession % | 48.42 | 42.10–54.74 | 40.51–56.34 | 51.86 | 45.54–58.18 | 43.95–59.78 | — |
| Passes | 403 | 337–468 | 320–486 | 413 | 349–478 | 331–496 | 816651–981 |
| Pass accuracy % | 72.62 | 68.40–76.83 | 67.10–78.13 | 73.00 | 68.49–77.51 | 67.16–78.84 | — |
| Fouls | 12.11 | 9.25–14.97 | 8.37–15.85 | 14.90 | 11.95–17.84 | 11.04–18.76 | 27.0119.40–34.61 |
| Offsides | 1.95 | 0.74–3.16 | 0.40–3.50 | 1.65 | 0.49–2.82 | 0.16–3.15 | 3.600.55–6.65 |
| Yellow cards | 1.98 | 0.92–3.03 | 0.65–3.30 | 2.29 | 1.17–3.41 | 0.88–3.70 | 4.261.52–7.00 |
| Red cards | 0.05 | 0.00–0.21 | 0.00–0.36 | 0.07 | 0.00–0.26 | 0.00–0.41 | 0.120.00–0.76 |
| GK saves | 2.71 | 1.29–4.12 | 0.90–4.51 | 2.76 | 1.21–4.31 | 0.77–4.75 | 5.471.68–9.26 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
32%
26%
42%
Shots on target
25%
14%
61%
Total shots
35%
57%
Shots in box
55%
35%
Blocked shots
38%
16%
46%
Corners
29%
14%
58%
Fouls
26%
67%
Offsides
45%
22%
33%
Yellow cards
34%
20%
46%
Red cards
89%
GK saves
40%
17%
42%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+