UEFA Europa Conference League· League Stage - 6· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2.30 | 1.34–3.26 | 1.08–3.52 | 0.81 | 0.00–1.67 | 0.00–1.91 | 3.100.78–5.43 |
| Shots on target | 6.04 | 4.18–7.89 | 3.68–8.39 | 2.96 | 1.25–4.66 | 0.78–5.13 | 8.994.46–13.52 |
| Total shots | 15.49 | 11.79–19.20 | 10.76–20.23 | 8.61 | 5.23–11.99 | 4.30–12.92 | 24.1015.06–33.15 |
| Shots in box | 12.03 | 9.51–14.55 | 8.65–15.41 | 5.16 | 2.86–7.46 | 2.06–8.26 | 17.1910.71–23.67 |
| Blocked shots | 4.31 | 2.72–5.89 | 2.19–6.43 | 2.32 | 0.90–3.73 | 0.42–4.22 | 6.632.61–10.65 |
| Corners | 5.84 | 3.64–8.05 | 3.04–8.65 | 2.99 | 1.01–4.96 | 0.47–5.50 | 8.833.52–14.15 |
| Possession % | 67.11 | 60.79–73.43 | 59.19–75.02 | 32.73 | 26.41–39.04 | 24.81–40.64 | — |
| Passes | 685 | 620–751 | 602–768 | 316 | 252–381 | 234–399 | 1002837–1167 |
| Pass accuracy % | 81.59 | 77.37–85.80 | 76.07–87.11 | 72.23 | 67.72–76.73 | 66.39–78.06 | — |
| Fouls | 11.25 | 8.40–14.11 | 7.51–15.00 | 11.63 | 8.68–14.57 | 7.77–15.49 | 22.8815.28–30.49 |
| Offsides | 1.86 | 0.65–3.07 | 0.31–3.41 | 1.85 | 0.69–3.02 | 0.36–3.35 | 3.710.66–6.76 |
| Yellow cards | 1.58 | 0.52–2.64 | 0.25–2.91 | 1.65 | 0.53–2.77 | 0.24–3.06 | 3.230.50–5.97 |
| Red cards | 0.04 | 0.00–0.19 | 0.00–0.35 | 0.08 | 0.00–0.27 | 0.00–0.41 | 0.120.00–0.76 |
| GK saves | 2.22 | 0.81–3.64 | 0.42–4.03 | 3.66 | 2.11–5.22 | 1.68–5.65 | 5.892.10–9.68 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
71%
18%
Shots on target
81%
Total shots
91%
Shots in box
94%
Blocked shots
72%
16%
Corners
79%
Fouls
43%
49%
Offsides
39%
22%
39%
Yellow cards
37%
23%
40%
Red cards
89%
GK saves
21%
14%
65%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+