UEFA Europa Conference League· League Stage - 1· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2.18 | 1.21–3.14 | 0.95–3.40 | 0.85 | 0.00–1.71 | 0.00–1.96 | 3.030.70–5.36 |
| Shots on target | 5.36 | 3.50–7.21 | 3.00–7.71 | 3.06 | 1.35–4.76 | 0.88–5.23 | 8.413.88–12.95 |
| Total shots | 14.18 | 10.48–17.88 | 9.45–18.91 | 7.59 | 4.21–10.96 | 3.28–11.89 | 21.7712.72–30.81 |
| Shots in box | 11.69 | 9.17–14.20 | 8.31–15.07 | 5.33 | 3.03–7.63 | 2.24–8.43 | 17.0210.54–23.50 |
| Blocked shots | 4.61 | 3.02–6.19 | 2.49–6.72 | 2.19 | 0.78–3.61 | 0.29–4.09 | 6.802.78–10.82 |
| Corners | 5.58 | 3.37–7.78 | 2.78–8.38 | 3.26 | 1.28–5.24 | 0.74–5.78 | 8.843.52–14.15 |
| Possession % | 60.74 | 54.42–67.06 | 52.83–68.65 | 39.06 | 32.74–45.38 | 31.14–46.97 | — |
| Passes | 542 | 477–608 | 459–625 | 341 | 276–405 | 259–423 | 883718–1048 |
| Pass accuracy % | 81.58 | 77.36–85.79 | 76.06–87.10 | 73.03 | 68.53–77.54 | 67.20–78.87 | — |
| Fouls | 13.43 | 10.58–16.29 | 9.69–17.18 | 9.94 | 6.99–12.88 | 6.07–13.80 | 23.3715.77–30.98 |
| Offsides | 2.30 | 1.09–3.51 | 0.75–3.86 | 1.58 | 0.42–2.74 | 0.08–3.07 | 3.880.83–6.93 |
| Yellow cards | 1.58 | 0.53–2.64 | 0.26–2.91 | 2.03 | 0.91–3.15 | 0.62–3.44 | 3.610.87–6.35 |
| Red cards | 0.03 | 0.00–0.18 | 0.00–0.33 | 0.06 | 0.00–0.25 | 0.00–0.39 | 0.090.00–0.73 |
| GK saves | 2.29 | 0.87–3.70 | 0.48–4.09 | 3.42 | 1.86–4.97 | 1.43–5.40 | 5.701.91–9.49 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
68%
19%
13%
Shots on target
73%
16%
Total shots
91%
Shots in box
93%
Blocked shots
77%
Corners
73%
17%
Fouls
73%
20%
Offsides
54%
20%
26%
Yellow cards
30%
21%
48%
Red cards
92%
GK saves
24%
15%
60%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+