Coppa Italia· Round of 16· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.04 | 0.07–2.00 | 0.00–2.26 | 1.96 | 1.10–2.82 | 0.85–3.06 | 2.990.66–5.32 |
| Shots on target | 4.21 | 2.36–6.07 | 1.86–6.57 | 5.00 | 3.29–6.71 | 2.82–7.18 | 9.214.68–13.74 |
| Total shots | 12.47 | 8.76–16.17 | 7.73–17.20 | 14.06 | 10.69–17.44 | 9.75–18.37 | 26.5317.49–35.57 |
| Shots in box | 7.47 | 4.95–9.98 | 4.08–10.85 | 9.48 | 7.18–11.78 | 6.38–12.58 | 16.9510.47–23.43 |
| Blocked shots | 2.93 | 1.35–4.52 | 0.82–5.05 | 3.55 | 2.14–4.97 | 1.65–5.46 | 6.492.47–10.51 |
| Corners | 4.48 | 2.27–6.68 | 1.68–7.28 | 5.40 | 3.43–7.38 | 2.89–7.92 | 9.884.56–15.20 |
| Possession % | 39.80 | 33.49–46.12 | 31.89–47.72 | 60.20 | 53.89–66.52 | 52.29–68.12 | — |
| Passes | 345 | 280–411 | 262–428 | 530 | 466–595 | 448–613 | 876711–1041 |
| Pass accuracy % | 80.84 | 76.62–85.05 | 75.32–86.35 | 87.07 | 82.56–91.58 | 81.23–92.91 | — |
| Fouls | 12.52 | 9.66–15.37 | 8.77–16.26 | 11.91 | 8.96–14.85 | 8.04–15.77 | 24.4216.82–32.03 |
| Offsides | 2.93 | 1.72–4.14 | 1.37–4.48 | 1.03 | 0.00–2.19 | 0.00–2.53 | 3.960.91–7.01 |
| Yellow cards | 2.00 | 0.94–3.05 | 0.67–3.33 | 1.59 | 0.47–2.71 | 0.18–3.00 | 3.590.85–6.33 |
| Red cards | 0.06 | 0.00–0.22 | 0.00–0.37 | 0.08 | 0.00–0.27 | 0.00–0.41 | 0.140.00–0.78 |
| GK saves | 3.02 | 1.61–4.43 | 1.22–4.82 | 2.56 | 1.01–4.12 | 0.58–4.55 | 5.581.79–9.37 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
20%
22%
59%
Shots on target
33%
54%
Total shots
34%
58%
Shots in box
27%
64%
Blocked shots
33%
16%
52%
Corners
32%
55%
Fouls
51%
41%
Offsides
76%
14%
Yellow cards
47%
22%
31%
Red cards
87%
GK saves
49%
17%
34%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+