Coppa Italia· Round of 16· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2.35 | 1.39–3.31 | 1.13–3.58 | 0.95 | 0.09–1.81 | 0.00–2.06 | 3.300.97–5.63 |
| Shots on target | 7.11 | 5.25–8.96 | 4.75–9.46 | 2.97 | 1.26–4.68 | 0.80–5.15 | 10.085.55–14.61 |
| Total shots | 20.36 | 16.65–24.06 | 15.62–25.09 | 8.86 | 5.48–12.24 | 4.55–13.17 | 29.2220.18–38.26 |
| Shots in box | 13.61 | 11.09–16.12 | 10.23–16.99 | 5.25 | 2.95–7.55 | 2.15–8.35 | 18.8612.38–25.33 |
| Blocked shots | 5.48 | 3.90–7.07 | 3.37–7.60 | 2.45 | 1.03–3.86 | 0.55–4.35 | 7.933.91–11.95 |
| Corners | 7.28 | 5.08–9.49 | 4.48–10.08 | 2.93 | 0.95–4.91 | 0.41–5.44 | 10.214.90–15.53 |
| Possession % | 58.64 | 52.32–64.96 | 50.72–66.55 | 42.82 | 36.50–49.14 | 34.91–50.74 | — |
| Passes | 539 | 473–604 | 456–622 | 400 | 335–465 | 318–482 | 939774–1104 |
| Pass accuracy % | 88.74 | 84.52–92.95 | 83.22–94.25 | 84.47 | 79.97–88.98 | 78.64–90.31 | — |
| Fouls | 12.28 | 9.42–15.14 | 8.54–16.02 | 11.20 | 8.26–14.15 | 7.34–15.07 | 23.4815.87–31.09 |
| Offsides | 1.49 | 0.28–2.70 | 0.00–3.04 | 1.27 | 0.11–2.43 | 0.00–2.76 | 2.760.00–5.81 |
| Yellow cards | 1.35 | 0.30–2.41 | 0.02–2.68 | 1.68 | 0.56–2.80 | 0.27–3.09 | 3.030.29–5.77 |
| Red cards | 0.03 | 0.00–0.18 | 0.00–0.34 | 0.07 | 0.00–0.26 | 0.00–0.40 | 0.100.00–0.74 |
| GK saves | 2.47 | 1.05–3.88 | 0.66–4.27 | 4.07 | 2.52–5.63 | 2.09–6.06 | 6.542.75–10.33 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
69%
18%
14%
Shots on target
88%
Total shots
98%
Shots in box
97%
Blocked shots
82%
Corners
89%
Fouls
55%
37%
Offsides
42%
25%
32%
Yellow cards
31%
24%
45%
Red cards
91%
GK saves
20%
13%
67%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+