FA Cup· 1st Round Qualifying Replays· · referee: not announced
Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffsquad not published · form-based estimate| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.80 | 0.84–2.77 | 0.58–3.03 | 1.13 | 0.27–1.99 | 0.02–2.23 | 2.930.60–5.26 |
| Shots on target | 5.19 | 3.34–7.05 | 2.84–7.55 | 5.28 | 3.58–6.99 | 3.11–7.46 | 10.485.95–15.01 |
| Total shots | 13.47 | 9.76–17.17 | 8.73–18.20 | 12.35 | 8.97–15.73 | 8.04–16.66 | 25.8216.77–34.86 |
| Shots in box | 4.77 | 2.26–7.29 | 1.39–8.15 | 7.11 | 4.81–9.41 | 4.01–10.21 | 11.885.40–18.36 |
| Blocked shots | 2.42 | 0.84–4.00 | 0.30–4.54 | 3.21 | 1.79–4.62 | 1.31–5.11 | 5.631.61–9.65 |
| Corners | 4.51 | 2.30–6.72 | 1.71–7.31 | 3.91 | 1.93–5.89 | 1.40–6.43 | 8.423.11–13.74 |
| Possession % | 51.59 | 45.27–57.90 | 43.67–59.50 | 47.19 | 40.87–53.51 | 39.27–55.10 | — |
| Passes | 417 | 352–483 | 335–500 | 394 | 329–458 | 312–476 | 811646–976 |
| Pass accuracy % | 69.43 | 65.22–73.65 | 63.91–74.95 | 68.96 | 64.46–73.47 | 63.13–74.80 | — |
| Fouls | 11.81 | 8.95–14.67 | 8.07–15.55 | 12.60 | 9.66–15.55 | 8.74–16.47 | 24.4116.81–32.02 |
| Offsides | 1.60 | 0.39–2.81 | 0.05–3.15 | 1.58 | 0.42–2.74 | 0.08–3.07 | 3.180.13–6.23 |
| Yellow cards | 1.49 | 0.43–2.54 | 0.16–2.82 | 1.92 | 0.80–3.04 | 0.51–3.33 | 3.410.67–6.15 |
| Red cards | 0.08 | 0.00–0.23 | 0.00–0.38 | 0.05 | 0.00–0.24 | 0.00–0.38 | 0.120.00–0.76 |
| GK saves | 2.47 | 1.05–3.88 | 0.66–4.27 | 2.65 | 1.10–4.20 | 0.66–4.64 | 5.121.33–8.91 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
53%
23%
24%
Shots on target
43%
45%
Total shots
55%
37%
Shots in box
20%
70%
Blocked shots
29%
16%
55%
Corners
51%
14%
35%
Fouls
40%
52%
Offsides
39%
24%
38%
Yellow cards
30%
22%
48%
Red cards
89%
GK saves
38%
18%
44%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+