FA Cup· 1st Round Qualifying Replays· · referee: not announced
Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffsquad not published · form-based estimate| Stat | Home | safe | safer | actual | Away | safe | safer | actual | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.73 | 0.77–2.70 | 0.51–2.96 | 2.00 | 1.01 | 0.15–1.86 | 0.00–2.11 | 1.00 | 2.74act. 3.00 |
| Shots on target | 4.70 | 2.84–6.55 | 2.34–7.05 | — | 1.62 | 0.00–3.32 | 0.00–3.79 | — | 6.311.78–10.85 |
| Total shots | 10.79 | 7.08–14.49 | 6.05–15.52 | — | 7.14 | 3.76–10.52 | 2.83–11.45 | — | 17.938.89–26.97 |
| Shots in box | 6.56 | 4.04–9.07 | 3.18–9.94 | — | 2.95 | 0.65–5.25 | 0.00–6.05 | — | 9.513.03–15.99 |
| Blocked shots | 2.63 | 1.05–4.22 | 0.51–4.75 | — | 1.52 | 0.10–2.93 | 0.00–3.42 | — | 4.150.13–8.17 |
| Corners | 5.84 | 3.63–8.04 | 3.04–8.64 | — | 4.26 | 2.28–6.24 | 1.74–6.77 | — | 10.104.78–15.41 |
| Possession % | 53.79 | 47.47–60.11 | 45.88–61.71 | — | 44.69 | 38.37–51.01 | 36.78–52.61 | — | — |
| Passes | 394 | 329–460 | 312–477 | — | 339 | 274–403 | 257–421 | — | 733568–898 |
| Pass accuracy % | 69.89 | 65.68–74.11 | 64.38–75.41 | — | 64.67 | 60.17–69.18 | 58.84–70.51 | — | — |
| Fouls | 10.23 | 7.38–13.09 | 6.49–13.98 | — | 12.03 | 9.08–14.97 | 8.16–15.89 | — | 22.2614.65–29.87 |
| Offsides | 2.41 | 1.21–3.62 | 0.86–3.97 | — | 1.67 | 0.50–2.83 | 0.17–3.16 | — | 4.081.03–7.13 |
| Yellow cards | 1.75 | 0.69–2.80 | 0.42–3.07 | — | 1.98 | 0.86–3.10 | 0.57–3.39 | — | 3.730.99–6.46 |
| Red cards | 0.11 | 0.00–0.26 | 0.00–0.41 | — | 0.08 | 0.00–0.27 | 0.00–0.42 | — | 0.190.00–0.83 |
| GK saves | 2.04 | 0.62–3.45 | 0.23–3.84 | — | 3.25 | 1.70–4.81 | 1.27–5.24 | — | 5.291.50–9.08 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
54%
24%
22%
Shots on target
85%
Total shots
77%
16%
Shots in box
85%
Blocked shots
61%
18%
21%
Corners
63%
25%
Fouls
31%
61%
Offsides
54%
19%
26%
Yellow cards
35%
21%
44%
Red cards
84%
GK saves
22%
16%
62%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+