FA Cup· 1st Round Qualifying Replays· · referee: not announced
Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoff| Stat | Home | safe | safer | actual | Away | safe | safer | actual | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.34 | 0.37–2.30 | 0.11–2.56 | 1.00 | 1.59 | 0.73–2.45 | 0.48–2.69 | 3.00 | 2.92act. 4.00 |
| Shots on target | 4.49 | 2.63–6.34 | 2.13–6.84 | — | 3.48 | 1.78–5.19 | 1.31–5.66 | — | 7.973.44–12.50 |
| Total shots | 11.83 | 8.13–15.54 | 7.10–16.57 | — | 10.28 | 6.91–13.66 | 5.97–14.59 | — | 22.1213.07–31.16 |
| Shots in box | 8.32 | 5.81–10.84 | 4.94–11.70 | — | 7.73 | 5.43–10.03 | 4.63–10.83 | — | 16.059.57–22.53 |
| Blocked shots | 3.83 | 2.25–5.42 | 1.71–5.95 | — | 3.43 | 2.02–4.85 | 1.53–5.33 | — | 7.263.24–11.28 |
| Corners | 4.43 | 2.22–6.63 | 1.63–7.23 | — | 4.80 | 2.82–6.78 | 2.28–7.31 | — | 9.223.91–14.54 |
| Possession % | 43.15 | 36.83–49.46 | 35.23–51.06 | — | 57.23 | 50.91–63.55 | 49.32–65.15 | — | — |
| Passes | 321 | 256–386 | 238–404 | — | 435 | 371–500 | 353–517 | — | 756591–921 |
| Pass accuracy % | 65.52 | 61.31–69.74 | 60.00–71.04 | — | 73.73 | 69.22–78.23 | 67.89–79.57 | — | — |
| Fouls | 11.73 | 8.87–14.58 | 7.98–15.47 | — | 12.44 | 9.49–15.38 | 8.58–16.30 | — | 24.1716.56–31.77 |
| Offsides | 1.66 | 0.45–2.87 | 0.10–3.21 | — | 1.80 | 0.64–2.96 | 0.31–3.30 | — | 3.460.41–6.51 |
| Yellow cards | 1.95 | 0.90–3.01 | 0.63–3.28 | — | 1.82 | 0.70–2.94 | 0.41–3.23 | — | 3.771.04–6.51 |
| Red cards | 0.08 | 0.00–0.23 | 0.00–0.39 | — | 0.07 | 0.00–0.26 | 0.00–0.40 | — | 0.150.00–0.79 |
| GK saves | 2.46 | 1.05–3.88 | 0.66–4.27 | — | 2.88 | 1.33–4.43 | 0.90–4.87 | — | 5.341.55–9.13 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
32%
24%
43%
Shots on target
57%
14%
30%
Total shots
59%
33%
Shots in box
51%
39%
Blocked shots
48%
15%
37%
Corners
39%
13%
48%
Fouls
40%
52%
Offsides
36%
22%
42%
Yellow cards
42%
21%
37%
Red cards
87%
GK saves
34%
17%
48%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+