Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2.92 | 1.95–3.88 | 1.69–4.14 | 0.87 | 0.01–1.72 | 0.00–1.97 | 3.781.45–6.11 |
| Shots on target | 7.88 | 6.02–9.73 | 5.52–10.23 | 3.02 | 1.31–4.73 | 0.84–5.19 | 10.896.36–15.43 |
| Total shots | 20.20 | 16.50–23.91 | 15.47–24.94 | 8.19 | 4.81–11.57 | 3.88–12.50 | 28.3919.35–37.44 |
| Shots in box | 13.87 | 11.36–16.39 | 10.49–17.25 | 5.30 | 3.00–7.60 | 2.20–8.40 | 19.1712.69–25.65 |
| Blocked shots | 4.76 | 3.18–6.35 | 2.64–6.88 | 2.37 | 0.95–3.78 | 0.47–4.27 | 7.133.11–11.15 |
| Corners | 7.26 | 5.06–9.47 | 4.46–10.06 | 3.16 | 1.18–5.14 | 0.64–5.67 | 10.425.11–15.74 |
| Possession % | 57.20 | 50.89–63.52 | 49.29–65.12 | 41.72 | 35.40–48.04 | 33.80–49.64 | — |
| Passes | 619 | 553–684 | 536–702 | 424 | 359–488 | 342–506 | 1042877–1208 |
| Pass accuracy % | 87.02 | 82.81–91.24 | 81.50–92.54 | 80.71 | 76.21–85.22 | 74.88–86.55 | — |
| Fouls | 11.44 | 8.58–14.30 | 7.70–15.18 | 11.53 | 8.59–14.48 | 7.67–15.40 | 22.9715.37–30.58 |
| Offsides | 2.54 | 1.33–3.74 | 0.98–4.09 | 1.23 | 0.07–2.39 | 0.00–2.73 | 3.770.72–6.82 |
| Yellow cards | 1.65 | 0.60–2.71 | 0.32–2.98 | 1.82 | 0.70–2.94 | 0.41–3.23 | 3.470.73–6.21 |
| Red cards | 0.03 | 0.00–0.19 | 0.00–0.34 | 0.10 | 0.00–0.29 | 0.00–0.43 | 0.130.00–0.77 |
| GK saves | 2.40 | 0.99–3.82 | 0.60–4.21 | 4.33 | 2.78–5.89 | 2.35–6.32 | 6.732.95–10.52 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
79%
Shots on target
91%
Total shots
99%
Shots in box
97%
Blocked shots
76%
13%
Corners
87%
Fouls
45%
47%
Offsides
66%
18%
17%
Yellow cards
35%
22%
42%
Red cards
88%
GK saves
17%
71%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+