DFB Pokal· Round of 32· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.17 | 0.21–2.14 | 0.00–2.40 | 2.40 | 1.54–3.26 | 1.30–3.51 | 3.581.25–5.91 |
| Shots on target | 4.23 | 2.37–6.08 | 1.87–6.58 | 6.50 | 4.79–8.21 | 4.32–8.67 | 10.726.19–15.26 |
| Total shots | 12.96 | 9.26–16.66 | 8.23–17.70 | 17.91 | 14.53–21.29 | 13.60–22.22 | 30.8721.82–39.91 |
| Shots in box | 7.87 | 5.36–10.39 | 4.49–11.25 | 11.66 | 9.36–13.96 | 8.56–14.76 | 19.5413.06–26.01 |
| Blocked shots | 2.97 | 1.39–4.55 | 0.85–5.09 | 4.62 | 3.20–6.03 | 2.71–6.52 | 7.593.57–11.61 |
| Corners | 4.68 | 2.48–6.89 | 1.88–7.48 | 6.67 | 4.70–8.65 | 4.16–9.19 | 11.366.04–16.67 |
| Possession % | 38.10 | 31.78–44.42 | 30.19–46.01 | 62.08 | 55.76–68.39 | 54.16–69.99 | — |
| Passes | 336 | 270–401 | 253–419 | 577 | 512–641 | 495–659 | 912747–1078 |
| Pass accuracy % | 70.98 | 66.76–75.19 | 65.46–76.50 | 84.03 | 79.53–88.54 | 78.20–89.87 | — |
| Fouls | 10.38 | 7.52–13.24 | 6.64–14.12 | 13.01 | 10.06–15.95 | 9.14–16.87 | 23.3815.78–30.99 |
| Offsides | 1.17 | 0.00–2.37 | 0.00–2.72 | 1.71 | 0.55–2.88 | 0.22–3.21 | 2.880.00–5.93 |
| Yellow cards | 1.78 | 0.73–2.84 | 0.45–3.11 | 1.76 | 0.64–2.88 | 0.35–3.17 | 3.540.80–6.27 |
| Red cards | 0.07 | 0.00–0.23 | 0.00–0.38 | 0.07 | 0.00–0.27 | 0.00–0.41 | 0.140.00–0.79 |
| GK saves | 3.59 | 2.18–5.01 | 1.79–5.39 | 2.77 | 1.22–4.32 | 0.78–4.76 | 6.362.57–10.15 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
17%
18%
65%
Shots on target
20%
71%
Total shots
16%
79%
Shots in box
16%
77%
Blocked shots
22%
66%
Corners
23%
67%
Fouls
26%
67%
Offsides
26%
24%
50%
Yellow cards
39%
22%
38%
Red cards
87%
GK saves
55%
15%
30%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+