FA Cup· 2nd Round Qualifying· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.79 | 0.83–2.75 | 0.57–3.01 | 1.09 | 0.23–1.95 | 0.00–2.20 | 2.880.55–5.21 |
| Shots on target | 6.28 | 4.43–8.14 | 3.93–8.64 | 4.42 | 2.71–6.13 | 2.24–6.59 | 10.706.17–15.23 |
| Total shots | 15.47 | 11.76–19.17 | 10.73–20.20 | 13.31 | 9.93–16.69 | 9.00–17.62 | 28.7819.73–37.82 |
| Shots in box | 9.12 | 6.60–11.64 | 5.74–12.50 | 6.29 | 3.98–8.59 | 3.19–9.38 | 15.418.93–21.88 |
| Blocked shots | 3.15 | 1.56–4.73 | 1.03–5.26 | 3.06 | 1.65–4.48 | 1.16–4.96 | 6.212.19–10.23 |
| Corners | 3.73 | 1.53–5.94 | 0.93–6.53 | 3.74 | 1.76–5.71 | 1.22–6.25 | 7.472.15–12.79 |
| Possession % | 54.89 | 48.57–61.21 | 46.97–62.80 | 45.26 | 38.94–51.58 | 37.35–53.18 | — |
| Passes | 457 | 392–523 | 374–540 | 328 | 263–393 | 246–410 | 785620–951 |
| Pass accuracy % | 72.90 | 68.68–77.11 | 67.38–78.42 | 65.70 | 61.20–70.21 | 59.87–71.54 | — |
| Fouls | 12.36 | 9.51–15.22 | 8.62–16.10 | 12.44 | 9.49–15.38 | 8.58–16.30 | 24.8017.20–32.41 |
| Offsides | 1.68 | 0.47–2.89 | 0.12–3.23 | 1.66 | 0.49–2.82 | 0.16–3.15 | 3.330.28–6.38 |
| Yellow cards | 1.51 | 0.45–2.56 | 0.18–2.84 | 1.77 | 0.65–2.89 | 0.36–3.18 | 3.280.54–6.02 |
| Red cards | 0.08 | 0.00–0.23 | 0.00–0.38 | 0.05 | 0.00–0.24 | 0.00–0.39 | 0.130.00–0.77 |
| GK saves | 2.65 | 1.24–4.07 | 0.85–4.46 | 2.92 | 1.36–4.47 | 0.93–4.90 | 5.571.78–9.36 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
54%
23%
23%
Shots on target
66%
23%
Total shots
62%
31%
Shots in box
72%
20%
Blocked shots
43%
16%
40%
Corners
43%
15%
43%
Fouls
45%
47%
Offsides
39%
23%
38%
Yellow cards
33%
23%
44%
Red cards
88%
GK saves
37%
17%
46%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+