FA Cup· 2nd Round Qualifying· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.57 | 0.60–2.53 | 0.34–2.79 | 1.15 | 0.29–2.01 | 0.05–2.26 | 2.720.39–5.05 |
| Shots on target | 5.03 | 3.18–6.89 | 2.68–7.39 | 2.88 | 1.17–4.59 | 0.71–5.06 | 7.923.38–12.45 |
| Total shots | 12.27 | 8.57–15.97 | 7.54–17.00 | 9.07 | 5.69–12.45 | 4.76–13.38 | 21.3412.29–30.38 |
| Shots in box | 8.54 | 6.03–11.06 | 5.16–11.92 | 6.65 | 4.35–8.95 | 3.56–9.75 | 15.208.72–21.67 |
| Blocked shots | 3.65 | 2.06–5.23 | 1.53–5.77 | 2.76 | 1.35–4.17 | 0.86–4.66 | 6.412.39–10.43 |
| Corners | 5.14 | 2.94–7.35 | 2.34–7.94 | 4.79 | 2.81–6.77 | 2.27–7.30 | 9.934.61–15.25 |
| Possession % | 49.60 | 43.29–55.92 | 41.69–57.52 | 51.18 | 44.86–57.50 | 43.27–59.10 | — |
| Passes | 387 | 321–452 | 304–470 | 438 | 374–503 | 356–520 | 825660–990 |
| Pass accuracy % | 72.96 | 68.74–77.18 | 67.44–78.48 | 73.67 | 69.17–78.18 | 67.84–79.51 | — |
| Fouls | 11.57 | 8.71–14.42 | 7.82–15.31 | 12.14 | 9.20–15.09 | 8.28–16.00 | 23.7116.10–31.31 |
| Offsides | 1.80 | 0.59–3.01 | 0.25–3.36 | 1.77 | 0.61–2.94 | 0.28–3.27 | 3.580.53–6.63 |
| Yellow cards | 1.66 | 0.60–2.71 | 0.33–2.99 | 1.61 | 0.49–2.73 | 0.20–3.02 | 3.260.53–6.00 |
| Red cards | 0.08 | 0.00–0.23 | 0.00–0.38 | 0.08 | 0.00–0.27 | 0.00–0.42 | 0.160.00–0.80 |
| GK saves | 2.42 | 1.00–3.83 | 0.61–4.22 | 2.76 | 1.21–4.31 | 0.78–4.75 | 5.181.39–8.97 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
47%
25%
28%
Shots on target
72%
17%
Total shots
72%
21%
Shots in box
64%
27%
Blocked shots
56%
15%
29%
Corners
48%
39%
Fouls
41%
51%
Offsides
40%
22%
38%
Yellow cards
40%
23%
37%
Red cards
86%
GK saves
35%
18%
47%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+