FA Cup· 2nd Round Qualifying· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.85 | 0.88–2.81 | 0.62–3.07 | 1.15 | 0.30–2.01 | 0.05–2.26 | 3.000.67–5.33 |
| Shots on target | 4.36 | 2.51–6.22 | 2.01–6.72 | 3.49 | 1.78–5.20 | 1.31–5.66 | 7.853.32–12.38 |
| Total shots | 15.67 | 11.97–19.37 | 10.94–20.40 | 10.40 | 7.02–13.78 | 6.09–14.71 | 26.0717.03–35.11 |
| Shots in box | 8.78 | 6.26–11.29 | 5.40–12.16 | 7.06 | 4.75–9.36 | 3.96–10.15 | 15.839.36–22.31 |
| Blocked shots | 3.91 | 2.33–5.49 | 1.79–6.03 | 2.95 | 1.54–4.37 | 1.05–4.85 | 6.862.84–10.88 |
| Corners | 5.13 | 2.92–7.33 | 2.33–7.93 | 4.28 | 2.30–6.26 | 1.77–6.80 | 9.414.10–14.73 |
| Possession % | 55.20 | 48.88–61.52 | 47.29–63.11 | 44.65 | 38.33–50.97 | 36.74–52.57 | — |
| Passes | 433 | 368–499 | 351–516 | 351 | 286–415 | 268–433 | 784619–949 |
| Pass accuracy % | 74.23 | 70.02–78.45 | 68.72–79.75 | 68.39 | 63.88–72.90 | 62.55–74.23 | — |
| Fouls | 11.66 | 8.81–14.52 | 7.92–15.40 | 12.85 | 9.90–15.80 | 8.99–16.71 | 24.5116.91–32.12 |
| Offsides | 1.44 | 0.23–2.65 | 0.00–2.99 | 1.81 | 0.65–2.98 | 0.32–3.31 | 3.250.20–6.30 |
| Yellow cards | 1.70 | 0.64–2.75 | 0.37–3.02 | 1.72 | 0.60–2.84 | 0.31–3.13 | 3.410.67–6.15 |
| Red cards | 0.08 | 0.00–0.23 | 0.00–0.38 | 0.06 | 0.00–0.25 | 0.00–0.40 | 0.140.00–0.78 |
| GK saves | 2.43 | 1.01–3.84 | 0.62–4.23 | 3.07 | 1.52–4.63 | 1.09–5.06 | 5.501.71–9.29 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
54%
23%
24%
Shots on target
55%
14%
31%
Total shots
83%
Shots in box
62%
29%
Blocked shots
57%
15%
29%
Corners
54%
33%
Fouls
37%
55%
Offsides
31%
23%
47%
Yellow cards
38%
23%
39%
Red cards
88%
GK saves
31%
17%
52%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+