FA Cup· 2nd Round Qualifying· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
squad not published · form-based estimate| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.77 | 0.81–2.73 | 0.55–2.99 | 1.22 | 0.36–2.08 | 0.12–2.33 | 3.000.67–5.32 |
| Shots on target | 5.07 | 3.21–6.92 | 2.71–7.42 | 5.35 | 3.65–7.06 | 3.18–7.53 | 10.425.89–14.95 |
| Total shots | 12.92 | 9.22–16.62 | 8.19–17.65 | 12.64 | 9.26–16.02 | 8.33–16.95 | 25.5616.51–34.60 |
| Shots in box | 4.95 | 2.43–7.46 | 1.57–8.33 | 7.59 | 5.29–9.89 | 4.49–10.69 | 12.546.06–19.02 |
| Blocked shots | 2.51 | 0.92–4.09 | 0.39–4.62 | 3.27 | 1.86–4.68 | 1.37–5.17 | 5.781.76–9.79 |
| Corners | 4.02 | 1.82–6.23 | 1.22–6.82 | 4.05 | 2.07–6.03 | 1.53–6.56 | 8.072.75–13.39 |
| Possession % | 48.78 | 42.46–55.10 | 40.87–56.69 | 50.57 | 44.25–56.89 | 42.66–58.49 | — |
| Passes | 406 | 340–471 | 323–489 | 387 | 322–451 | 305–469 | 793627–958 |
| Pass accuracy % | 66.62 | 62.40–70.83 | 61.10–72.14 | 69.12 | 64.61–73.62 | 63.28–74.95 | — |
| Fouls | 11.94 | 9.08–14.80 | 8.20–15.68 | 12.71 | 9.77–15.66 | 8.85–16.58 | 24.6517.05–32.26 |
| Offsides | 1.75 | 0.54–2.96 | 0.19–3.30 | 1.67 | 0.51–2.83 | 0.18–3.17 | 3.420.37–6.47 |
| Yellow cards | 1.61 | 0.55–2.66 | 0.28–2.94 | 1.80 | 0.68–2.92 | 0.39–3.21 | 3.410.67–6.15 |
| Red cards | 0.07 | 0.00–0.22 | 0.00–0.37 | 0.04 | 0.00–0.24 | 0.00–0.38 | 0.110.00–0.75 |
| GK saves | 2.67 | 1.26–4.09 | 0.87–4.48 | 2.85 | 1.30–4.41 | 0.87–4.84 | 5.531.74–9.32 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
50%
23%
26%
Shots on target
40%
47%
Total shots
48%
44%
Shots in box
19%
73%
Blocked shots
30%
16%
54%
Corners
43%
14%
43%
Fouls
40%
52%
Offsides
40%
23%
37%
Yellow cards
35%
23%
43%
Red cards
90%
GK saves
38%
17%
44%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+