FA Cup· 2nd Round Qualifying· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.88 | 0.92–2.84 | 0.66–3.10 | 1.10 | 0.24–1.96 | 0.00–2.21 | 2.980.65–5.31 |
| Shots on target | 5.39 | 3.53–7.24 | 3.03–7.74 | 5.21 | 3.50–6.92 | 3.03–7.39 | 10.606.07–15.13 |
| Total shots | 13.68 | 9.98–17.39 | 8.95–18.42 | 14.49 | 11.11–17.86 | 10.18–18.79 | 28.1719.12–37.21 |
| Shots in box | 6.67 | 4.15–9.19 | 3.29–10.05 | 6.85 | 4.55–9.15 | 3.75–9.95 | 13.527.04–20.00 |
| Blocked shots | 3.00 | 1.42–4.58 | 0.88–5.12 | 3.34 | 1.92–4.75 | 1.44–5.24 | 6.342.32–10.36 |
| Corners | 3.95 | 1.74–6.16 | 1.15–6.75 | 3.67 | 1.70–5.65 | 1.16–6.19 | 7.622.31–12.94 |
| Possession % | 53.54 | 47.22–59.85 | 45.62–61.45 | 46.39 | 40.07–52.71 | 38.48–54.31 | — |
| Passes | 414 | 348–479 | 331–497 | 352 | 288–417 | 270–434 | 766601–931 |
| Pass accuracy % | 68.69 | 64.48–72.91 | 63.18–74.21 | 66.61 | 62.10–71.11 | 60.77–72.44 | — |
| Fouls | 12.05 | 9.19–14.91 | 8.31–15.79 | 12.03 | 9.08–14.97 | 8.17–15.89 | 24.0816.47–31.69 |
| Offsides | 1.60 | 0.39–2.81 | 0.04–3.15 | 1.90 | 0.74–3.06 | 0.41–3.40 | 3.500.45–6.55 |
| Yellow cards | 1.35 | 0.29–2.40 | 0.02–2.67 | 1.74 | 0.62–2.86 | 0.33–3.15 | 3.080.35–5.82 |
| Red cards | 0.08 | 0.00–0.23 | 0.00–0.38 | 0.05 | 0.00–0.25 | 0.00–0.39 | 0.130.00–0.77 |
| GK saves | 2.96 | 1.54–4.37 | 1.15–4.76 | 2.92 | 1.36–4.47 | 0.93–4.90 | 5.872.08–9.66 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
56%
22%
22%
Shots on target
46%
42%
Total shots
40%
52%
Shots in box
43%
46%
Blocked shots
37%
16%
47%
Corners
47%
15%
39%
Fouls
46%
46%
Offsides
33%
22%
45%
Yellow cards
30%
23%
47%
Red cards
88%
GK saves
42%
17%
41%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+