FA Cup· 2nd Round Qualifying· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
squad not published · form-based estimate| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2.16 | 1.20–3.12 | 0.94–3.38 | 0.97 | 0.11–1.83 | 0.00–2.07 | 3.120.80–5.45 |
| Shots on target | 5.26 | 3.40–7.11 | 2.90–7.61 | 2.80 | 1.09–4.50 | 0.62–4.97 | 8.053.52–12.58 |
| Total shots | 11.23 | 7.52–14.93 | 6.49–15.96 | 5.44 | 2.06–8.82 | 1.13–9.75 | 16.677.62–25.71 |
| Shots in box | 0.75 | 0.00–3.27 | 0.00–4.13 | 0.64 | 0.00–2.94 | 0.00–3.74 | 1.390.00–7.87 |
| Blocked shots | 0.28 | 0.00–1.86 | 0.00–2.39 | 0.24 | 0.00–1.65 | 0.00–2.14 | 0.510.00–4.53 |
| Corners | 7.38 | 5.17–9.58 | 4.58–10.18 | 3.52 | 1.54–5.50 | 1.00–6.04 | 10.905.58–16.21 |
| Possession % | 55.07 | 48.75–61.39 | 47.16–62.98 | 44.72 | 38.40–51.03 | 36.80–52.63 | — |
| Passes | 410 | 345–476 | 327–493 | 376 | 312–441 | 294–458 | 786621–952 |
| Pass accuracy % | 72.43 | 68.21–76.64 | 66.91–77.94 | 69.57 | 65.07–74.08 | 63.74–75.41 | — |
| Fouls | 15.37 | 12.51–18.23 | 11.63–19.11 | 15.95 | 13.00–18.89 | 12.08–19.81 | 31.3223.71–38.92 |
| Offsides | 0.76 | 0.00–1.97 | 0.00–2.31 | 0.54 | 0.00–1.70 | 0.00–2.03 | 1.300.00–4.35 |
| Yellow cards | 1.63 | 0.57–2.69 | 0.30–2.96 | 1.65 | 0.53–2.77 | 0.24–3.06 | 3.280.54–6.02 |
| Red cards | 0.10 | 0.00–0.25 | 0.00–0.40 | 0.06 | 0.00–0.26 | 0.00–0.40 | 0.160.00–0.80 |
| GK saves | 1.46 | 0.05–2.88 | 0.00–3.27 | 1.22 | 0.00–2.77 | 0.00–3.20 | 2.680.00–6.47 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
65%
20%
16%
Shots on target
76%
14%
Total shots
91%
Shots in box
34%
38%
27%
Blocked shots
20%
64%
16%
Corners
85%
Fouls
42%
51%
Offsides
37%
40%
23%
Yellow cards
38%
23%
39%
Red cards
86%
GK saves
43%
26%
31%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+