FA Cup· 2nd Round Qualifying· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
squad not published · form-based estimate| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.58 | 0.62–2.55 | 0.36–2.81 | 1.31 | 0.45–2.17 | 0.20–2.41 | 2.890.56–5.22 |
| Shots on target | 4.85 | 3.00–6.71 | 2.50–7.21 | 3.58 | 1.87–5.28 | 1.40–5.75 | 8.433.90–12.96 |
| Total shots | 13.79 | 10.09–17.50 | 9.06–18.53 | 9.37 | 5.99–12.74 | 5.06–13.68 | 23.1614.12–32.20 |
| Shots in box | 3.92 | 1.40–6.44 | 0.54–7.30 | 7.04 | 4.74–9.35 | 3.95–10.14 | 10.974.49–17.44 |
| Blocked shots | 1.96 | 0.37–3.54 | 0.00–4.07 | 2.98 | 1.57–4.39 | 1.08–4.88 | 4.940.92–8.96 |
| Corners | 6.25 | 4.05–8.46 | 3.45–9.05 | 4.07 | 2.09–6.05 | 1.56–6.59 | 10.335.01–15.64 |
| Possession % | 49.09 | 42.77–55.41 | 41.18–57.01 | 50.19 | 43.87–56.51 | 42.27–58.11 | — |
| Passes | 390 | 325–455 | 307–473 | 386 | 322–451 | 304–468 | 776611–941 |
| Pass accuracy % | 70.08 | 65.86–74.29 | 64.56–75.59 | 70.41 | 65.90–74.92 | 64.57–76.25 | — |
| Fouls | 12.09 | 9.23–14.94 | 8.34–15.83 | 13.91 | 10.97–16.86 | 10.05–17.78 | 26.0018.39–33.60 |
| Offsides | 1.47 | 0.26–2.67 | 0.00–3.02 | 2.05 | 0.89–3.21 | 0.55–3.54 | 3.510.47–6.56 |
| Yellow cards | 1.55 | 0.49–2.60 | 0.22–2.88 | 1.85 | 0.73–2.97 | 0.44–3.26 | 3.400.66–6.14 |
| Red cards | 0.08 | 0.00–0.24 | 0.00–0.39 | 0.06 | 0.00–0.25 | 0.00–0.40 | 0.150.00–0.79 |
| GK saves | 2.32 | 0.91–3.74 | 0.52–4.13 | 3.06 | 1.50–4.61 | 1.07–5.04 | 5.381.59–9.17 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
44%
25%
32%
Shots on target
60%
27%
Total shots
79%
15%
Shots in box
13%
79%
Blocked shots
24%
17%
59%
Corners
70%
20%
Fouls
32%
60%
Offsides
28%
21%
51%
Yellow cards
32%
22%
45%
Red cards
87%
GK saves
29%
17%
54%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+