FA Cup· 2nd Round Qualifying· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.75 | 0.79–2.72 | 0.53–2.98 | 0.96 | 0.10–1.82 | 0.00–2.06 | 2.710.38–5.04 |
| Shots on target | 5.05 | 3.20–6.91 | 2.70–7.41 | 1.97 | 0.26–3.68 | 0.00–4.14 | 7.022.49–11.55 |
| Total shots | 11.16 | 7.46–14.86 | 6.43–15.90 | 9.32 | 5.94–12.70 | 5.01–13.63 | 20.4811.44–29.53 |
| Shots in box | 7.94 | 5.43–10.46 | 4.56–11.32 | 5.34 | 3.03–7.64 | 2.24–8.43 | 13.286.80–19.76 |
| Blocked shots | 3.54 | 1.95–5.12 | 1.42–5.65 | 2.29 | 0.87–3.70 | 0.38–4.19 | 5.821.80–9.84 |
| Corners | 6.16 | 3.95–8.36 | 3.36–8.96 | 3.79 | 1.81–5.77 | 1.27–6.31 | 9.954.63–15.26 |
| Possession % | 54.28 | 47.96–60.60 | 46.37–62.20 | 46.08 | 39.76–52.40 | 38.16–54.00 | — |
| Passes | 410 | 344–475 | 327–493 | 385 | 320–449 | 302–467 | 794629–959 |
| Pass accuracy % | 72.19 | 67.97–76.41 | 66.67–77.71 | 70.35 | 65.84–74.85 | 64.51–76.18 | — |
| Fouls | 11.11 | 8.25–13.96 | 7.37–14.85 | 11.24 | 8.29–14.18 | 7.37–15.10 | 22.3414.74–29.95 |
| Offsides | 1.93 | 0.72–3.14 | 0.38–3.48 | 1.83 | 0.67–2.99 | 0.33–3.32 | 3.760.71–6.81 |
| Yellow cards | 1.56 | 0.50–2.62 | 0.23–2.89 | 1.63 | 0.51–2.75 | 0.22–3.04 | 3.190.45–5.93 |
| Red cards | 0.11 | 0.00–0.27 | 0.00–0.42 | 0.11 | 0.00–0.30 | 0.00–0.44 | 0.220.00–0.87 |
| GK saves | 2.68 | 1.27–4.10 | 0.88–4.49 | 2.81 | 1.26–4.37 | 0.83–4.80 | 5.501.71–9.28 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
56%
23%
20%
Shots on target
84%
Total shots
62%
30%
Shots in box
72%
20%
Blocked shots
62%
15%
23%
Corners
72%
18%
Fouls
45%
47%
Offsides
41%
21%
37%
Yellow cards
37%
23%
40%
Red cards
81%
GK saves
39%
17%
43%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+