FA Cup· 2nd Round Qualifying· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.35 | 0.39–2.32 | 0.13–2.58 | 1.57 | 0.71–2.43 | 0.46–2.67 | 2.920.59–5.25 |
| Shots on target | 4.00 | 2.15–5.86 | 1.65–6.36 | 3.29 | 1.58–5.00 | 1.11–5.46 | 7.292.76–11.82 |
| Total shots | 12.33 | 8.63–16.03 | 7.60–17.07 | 10.09 | 6.71–13.47 | 5.78–14.40 | 22.4213.38–31.46 |
| Shots in box | 4.76 | 2.24–7.28 | 1.38–8.14 | 9.48 | 7.17–11.78 | 6.38–12.57 | 14.247.76–20.71 |
| Blocked shots | 2.78 | 1.20–4.37 | 0.66–4.90 | 3.26 | 1.84–4.67 | 1.36–5.16 | 6.042.02–10.06 |
| Corners | 5.26 | 3.05–7.46 | 2.46–8.06 | 4.53 | 2.55–6.51 | 2.02–7.05 | 9.794.47–15.11 |
| Possession % | 45.13 | 38.81–51.45 | 37.22–53.05 | 57.08 | 50.76–63.40 | 49.17–65.00 | — |
| Passes | 340 | 274–405 | 257–423 | 398 | 333–462 | 316–480 | 738573–903 |
| Pass accuracy % | 64.96 | 60.74–69.17 | 59.44–70.47 | 72.54 | 68.04–77.05 | 66.71–78.38 | — |
| Fouls | 13.24 | 10.38–16.09 | 9.49–16.98 | 14.10 | 11.16–17.05 | 10.24–17.97 | 27.3419.73–34.95 |
| Offsides | 2.19 | 0.98–3.40 | 0.63–3.74 | 1.76 | 0.60–2.92 | 0.26–3.25 | 3.950.90–6.99 |
| Yellow cards | 1.46 | 0.41–2.52 | 0.14–2.79 | 1.47 | 0.35–2.59 | 0.06–2.88 | 2.930.19–5.67 |
| Red cards | 0.06 | 0.00–0.21 | 0.00–0.36 | 0.06 | 0.00–0.25 | 0.00–0.39 | 0.110.00–0.75 |
| GK saves | 2.59 | 1.17–4.00 | 0.78–4.39 | 3.05 | 1.49–4.60 | 1.06–5.03 | 5.631.84–9.42 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
33%
25%
42%
Shots on target
53%
15%
32%
Total shots
64%
28%
Shots in box
87%
Blocked shots
34%
16%
49%
Corners
53%
35%
Fouls
40%
53%
Offsides
48%
20%
32%
Yellow cards
38%
25%
38%
Red cards
90%
GK saves
34%
17%
49%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+