FA Cup· 2nd Round Qualifying· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2.60 | 1.63–3.56 | 1.37–3.82 | 0.83 | 0.00–1.69 | 0.00–1.94 | 3.431.10–5.76 |
| Shots on target | 5.52 | 3.66–7.38 | 3.16–7.88 | 3.32 | 1.61–5.03 | 1.15–5.50 | 8.844.31–13.37 |
| Total shots | 12.88 | 9.18–16.58 | 8.14–17.61 | 9.46 | 6.08–12.84 | 5.15–13.77 | 22.3413.29–31.38 |
| Shots in box | 7.45 | 4.93–9.97 | 4.07–10.83 | 3.15 | 0.85–5.45 | 0.05–6.25 | 10.604.12–17.08 |
| Blocked shots | 2.74 | 1.16–4.32 | 0.62–4.86 | 1.90 | 0.48–3.31 | 0.00–3.80 | 4.640.62–8.66 |
| Corners | 6.00 | 3.80–8.21 | 3.20–8.80 | 2.10 | 0.13–4.08 | 0.00–4.62 | 8.102.79–13.42 |
| Possession % | 57.58 | 51.26–63.90 | 49.66–65.49 | 42.98 | 36.66–49.30 | 35.07–50.90 | — |
| Passes | 438 | 372–503 | 355–521 | 343 | 278–407 | 261–425 | 780615–946 |
| Pass accuracy % | 77.50 | 73.29–81.72 | 71.98–83.02 | 69.68 | 65.18–74.19 | 63.85–75.52 | — |
| Fouls | 14.15 | 11.29–17.01 | 10.41–17.89 | 10.74 | 7.80–13.69 | 6.88–14.60 | 24.8917.29–32.50 |
| Offsides | 1.76 | 0.55–2.97 | 0.21–3.32 | 1.34 | 0.17–2.50 | 0.00–2.83 | 3.100.05–6.15 |
| Yellow cards | 1.61 | 0.56–2.67 | 0.28–2.94 | 1.69 | 0.57–2.81 | 0.28–3.10 | 3.300.56–6.04 |
| Red cards | 0.07 | 0.00–0.22 | 0.00–0.38 | 0.05 | 0.00–0.25 | 0.00–0.39 | 0.120.00–0.77 |
| GK saves | 2.40 | 0.98–3.81 | 0.59–4.20 | 2.80 | 1.24–4.35 | 0.81–4.78 | 5.191.40–8.98 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
75%
15%
Shots on target
72%
18%
Total shots
73%
20%
Shots in box
88%
Blocked shots
56%
18%
26%
Corners
89%
Fouls
72%
22%
Offsides
48%
23%
29%
Yellow cards
37%
23%
40%
Red cards
89%
GK saves
34%
18%
48%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+