Copa del Rey· 1/128-finals· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.61 | 0.65–2.58 | 0.39–2.84 | 1.20 | 0.34–2.06 | 0.09–2.30 | 2.810.48–5.14 |
| Shots on target | 5.14 | 3.28–6.99 | 2.78–7.49 | 4.48 | 2.77–6.18 | 2.30–6.65 | 9.625.08–14.15 |
| Total shots | 11.73 | 8.02–15.43 | 6.99–16.46 | 11.95 | 8.58–15.33 | 7.65–16.26 | 23.6814.64–32.72 |
| Shots in box | 9.53 | 7.01–12.05 | 6.15–12.91 | 7.33 | 5.03–9.64 | 4.24–10.43 | 16.8710.39–23.34 |
| Blocked shots | 3.40 | 1.82–4.98 | 1.28–5.52 | 3.12 | 1.70–4.53 | 1.22–5.02 | 6.522.50–10.54 |
| Corners | 4.36 | 2.16–6.57 | 1.56–7.16 | 3.80 | 1.83–5.78 | 1.29–6.32 | 8.172.85–13.48 |
| Possession % | 49.40 | 43.08–55.71 | 41.48–57.31 | 49.86 | 43.54–56.18 | 41.94–57.77 | — |
| Passes | 441 | 376–507 | 358–524 | 395 | 330–459 | 313–477 | 836671–1001 |
| Pass accuracy % | 77.98 | 73.76–82.19 | 72.46–83.50 | 74.48 | 69.97–78.99 | 68.64–80.32 | — |
| Fouls | 11.57 | 8.71–14.42 | 7.83–15.31 | 12.14 | 9.20–15.09 | 8.28–16.01 | 23.7116.11–31.32 |
| Offsides | 1.57 | 0.36–2.78 | 0.02–3.13 | 1.66 | 0.49–2.82 | 0.16–3.15 | 3.230.18–6.28 |
| Yellow cards | 1.73 | 0.67–2.79 | 0.40–3.06 | 2.10 | 0.98–3.22 | 0.69–3.51 | 3.831.09–6.57 |
| Red cards | 0.06 | 0.00–0.21 | 0.00–0.37 | 0.07 | 0.00–0.26 | 0.00–0.40 | 0.130.00–0.77 |
| GK saves | 2.53 | 1.11–3.94 | 0.72–4.33 | 2.60 | 1.05–4.16 | 0.62–4.59 | 5.131.34–8.92 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
47%
25%
28%
Shots on target
52%
35%
Total shots
44%
48%
Shots in box
66%
25%
Blocked shots
46%
16%
38%
Corners
51%
14%
35%
Fouls
41%
51%
Offsides
37%
23%
40%
Yellow cards
32%
21%
47%
Red cards
88%
GK saves
40%
18%
42%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+