FA Cup· 2nd Round Qualifying· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
squad not published · form-based estimate| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.31 | 0.35–2.28 | 0.09–2.54 | 1.38 | 0.52–2.24 | 0.27–2.48 | 2.690.36–5.02 |
| Shots on target | 4.38 | 2.53–6.24 | 2.03–6.74 | 4.27 | 2.56–5.98 | 2.09–6.44 | 8.654.12–13.18 |
| Total shots | 9.05 | 5.35–12.76 | 4.32–13.79 | 8.97 | 5.59–12.35 | 4.66–13.28 | 18.028.98–27.06 |
| Shots in box | 0.81 | 0.00–3.32 | 0.00–4.19 | 0.61 | 0.00–2.91 | 0.00–3.70 | 1.410.00–7.89 |
| Blocked shots | 0.37 | 0.00–1.96 | 0.00–2.49 | 0.41 | 0.00–1.82 | 0.00–2.31 | 0.780.00–4.80 |
| Corners | 5.07 | 2.87–7.28 | 2.27–7.87 | 4.35 | 2.37–6.33 | 1.83–6.87 | 9.424.11–14.74 |
| Possession % | 45.40 | 39.08–51.72 | 37.49–53.31 | 54.04 | 47.72–60.36 | 46.13–61.96 | — |
| Passes | 331 | 266–396 | 248–414 | 408 | 343–473 | 326–490 | 739574–904 |
| Pass accuracy % | 65.20 | 60.99–69.42 | 59.69–70.72 | 70.00 | 65.50–74.51 | 64.17–75.84 | — |
| Fouls | 13.05 | 10.19–15.91 | 9.31–16.79 | 12.86 | 9.92–15.81 | 9.00–16.73 | 25.9218.31–33.52 |
| Offsides | 0.45 | 0.00–1.66 | 0.00–2.00 | 0.58 | 0.00–1.74 | 0.00–2.07 | 1.020.00–4.07 |
| Yellow cards | 1.55 | 0.49–2.60 | 0.22–2.87 | 1.76 | 0.64–2.88 | 0.35–3.17 | 3.310.57–6.05 |
| Red cards | 0.15 | 0.00–0.30 | 0.00–0.45 | 0.06 | 0.00–0.26 | 0.00–0.40 | 0.210.00–0.85 |
| GK saves | 0.78 | 0.00–2.20 | 0.00–2.59 | 0.79 | 0.00–2.35 | 0.00–2.78 | 1.580.00–5.37 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
36%
26%
39%
Shots on target
45%
14%
42%
Total shots
46%
44%
Shots in box
37%
38%
25%
Blocked shots
22%
53%
25%
Corners
53%
34%
Fouls
48%
45%
Offsides
23%
46%
31%
Yellow cards
34%
23%
43%
Red cards
82%
GK saves
32%
36%
32%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+