Coppa Italia· Round of 16· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.13 | 0.16–2.09 | 0.00–2.35 | 1.52 | 0.66–2.38 | 0.41–2.62 | 2.640.31–4.97 |
| Shots on target | 4.37 | 2.52–6.23 | 2.02–6.73 | 4.51 | 2.80–6.22 | 2.33–6.69 | 8.884.35–13.42 |
| Total shots | 14.02 | 10.31–17.72 | 9.28–18.75 | 12.54 | 9.16–15.92 | 8.23–16.85 | 26.5617.51–35.60 |
| Shots in box | 8.83 | 6.31–11.35 | 5.45–12.21 | 8.49 | 6.19–10.79 | 5.39–11.59 | 17.3210.84–23.80 |
| Blocked shots | 4.11 | 2.53–5.70 | 1.99–6.23 | 3.24 | 1.83–4.66 | 1.34–5.14 | 7.363.34–11.37 |
| Corners | 4.86 | 2.66–7.07 | 2.06–7.66 | 4.63 | 2.65–6.61 | 2.11–7.15 | 9.494.18–14.81 |
| Possession % | 44.50 | 38.18–50.82 | 36.58–52.41 | 54.76 | 48.44–61.08 | 46.85–62.68 | — |
| Passes | 414 | 348–479 | 331–497 | 483 | 419–548 | 401–566 | 897732–1062 |
| Pass accuracy % | 72.21 | 68.00–76.43 | 66.69–77.73 | 71.96 | 67.46–76.47 | 66.13–77.80 | — |
| Fouls | 11.80 | 8.94–14.66 | 8.06–15.54 | 11.73 | 8.79–14.68 | 7.87–15.59 | 23.5315.93–31.14 |
| Offsides | 1.63 | 0.42–2.83 | 0.07–3.18 | 1.75 | 0.59–2.92 | 0.26–3.25 | 3.380.33–6.43 |
| Yellow cards | 1.79 | 0.73–2.84 | 0.46–3.11 | 1.60 | 0.48–2.72 | 0.19–3.01 | 3.390.65–6.12 |
| Red cards | 0.07 | 0.00–0.22 | 0.00–0.38 | 0.07 | 0.00–0.26 | 0.00–0.40 | 0.140.00–0.78 |
| GK saves | 2.61 | 1.19–4.02 | 0.80–4.41 | 2.75 | 1.20–4.31 | 0.77–4.74 | 5.361.57–9.15 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
28%
26%
46%
Shots on target
41%
14%
45%
Total shots
58%
35%
Shots in box
48%
42%
Blocked shots
55%
14%
30%
Corners
46%
13%
40%
Fouls
46%
45%
Offsides
36%
23%
41%
Yellow cards
43%
23%
35%
Red cards
88%
GK saves
39%
18%
44%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+