Coppa Italia· Round of 16· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2.79 | 1.83–3.75 | 1.57–4.01 | 0.77 | 0.00–1.62 | 0.00–1.87 | 3.561.23–5.88 |
| Shots on target | 7.64 | 5.78–9.49 | 5.28–9.99 | 2.89 | 1.18–4.60 | 0.71–5.06 | 10.536.00–15.06 |
| Total shots | 20.62 | 16.91–24.32 | 15.88–25.35 | 8.35 | 4.97–11.73 | 4.04–12.66 | 28.9719.92–38.01 |
| Shots in box | 14.00 | 11.48–16.51 | 10.62–17.38 | 5.68 | 3.38–7.99 | 2.59–8.78 | 19.6813.20–26.16 |
| Blocked shots | 5.59 | 4.00–7.17 | 3.47–7.71 | 2.20 | 0.78–3.61 | 0.30–4.10 | 7.783.76–11.80 |
| Corners | 7.66 | 5.45–9.86 | 4.86–10.46 | 2.98 | 1.00–4.96 | 0.47–5.50 | 10.645.32–15.96 |
| Possession % | 68.05 | 61.73–74.37 | 60.13–75.96 | 31.79 | 25.47–38.11 | 23.87–39.71 | — |
| Passes | 694 | 629–760 | 611–777 | 348 | 283–412 | 265–430 | 1042877–1207 |
| Pass accuracy % | 90.41 | 86.19–94.62 | 84.89–95.92 | 76.36 | 71.85–80.86 | 70.52–82.20 | — |
| Fouls | 10.20 | 7.34–13.06 | 6.46–13.94 | 9.71 | 6.77–12.66 | 5.85–13.58 | 19.9112.31–27.52 |
| Offsides | 1.62 | 0.41–2.83 | 0.07–3.18 | 2.24 | 1.08–3.40 | 0.74–3.73 | 3.860.81–6.91 |
| Yellow cards | 0.99 | 0.00–2.04 | 0.00–2.31 | 1.37 | 0.25–2.49 | 0.00–2.78 | 2.350.00–5.09 |
| Red cards | 0.03 | 0.00–0.18 | 0.00–0.33 | 0.06 | 0.00–0.25 | 0.00–0.39 | 0.080.00–0.73 |
| GK saves | 2.34 | 0.92–3.75 | 0.53–4.14 | 4.38 | 2.82–5.93 | 2.39–6.36 | 6.722.93–10.50 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
79%
13%
Shots on target
91%
Total shots
99%
Shots in box
96%
Blocked shots
85%
Corners
90%
Fouls
50%
41%
Offsides
28%
20%
52%
Yellow cards
27%
27%
46%
Red cards
92%
GK saves
16%
72%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+