FA Cup· Quarter-finals· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.83 | 0.87–2.79 | 0.61–3.05 | 1.07 | 0.21–1.93 | 0.00–2.18 | 2.900.57–5.23 |
| Shots on target | 5.25 | 3.39–7.11 | 2.89–7.60 | 2.82 | 1.11–4.52 | 0.64–4.99 | 8.073.54–12.60 |
| Total shots | 14.40 | 10.70–18.11 | 9.67–19.14 | 10.01 | 6.63–13.39 | 5.70–14.32 | 24.4115.37–33.46 |
| Shots in box | 9.27 | 6.76–11.79 | 5.89–12.65 | 4.45 | 2.14–6.75 | 1.35–7.54 | 13.727.24–20.20 |
| Blocked shots | 3.60 | 2.02–5.18 | 1.48–5.72 | 2.28 | 0.86–3.69 | 0.38–4.18 | 5.881.86–9.90 |
| Corners | 5.19 | 2.98–7.39 | 2.39–7.99 | 3.65 | 1.67–5.63 | 1.13–6.17 | 8.843.52–14.15 |
| Possession % | 56.07 | 49.75–62.39 | 48.16–63.98 | 43.75 | 37.43–50.07 | 35.83–51.67 | — |
| Passes | 479 | 414–544 | 396–562 | 322 | 258–387 | 240–404 | 801636–966 |
| Pass accuracy % | 77.83 | 73.61–82.04 | 72.31–83.34 | 65.82 | 61.31–70.32 | 59.98–71.65 | — |
| Fouls | 10.75 | 7.89–13.60 | 7.01–14.49 | 11.11 | 8.16–14.06 | 7.25–14.97 | 21.8614.25–29.46 |
| Offsides | 2.08 | 0.87–3.29 | 0.52–3.63 | 1.87 | 0.71–3.03 | 0.38–3.37 | 3.950.90–7.00 |
| Yellow cards | 1.63 | 0.58–2.69 | 0.31–2.96 | 1.76 | 0.64–2.88 | 0.35–3.17 | 3.390.65–6.13 |
| Red cards | 0.10 | 0.00–0.26 | 0.00–0.41 | 0.09 | 0.00–0.29 | 0.00–0.43 | 0.200.00–0.84 |
| GK saves | 2.65 | 1.24–4.07 | 0.85–4.46 | 2.93 | 1.37–4.48 | 0.94–4.91 | 5.581.79–9.37 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
55%
23%
22%
Shots on target
75%
15%
Total shots
79%
16%
Shots in box
88%
Blocked shots
63%
15%
22%
Corners
64%
24%
Fouls
43%
49%
Offsides
44%
21%
36%
Yellow cards
36%
23%
41%
Red cards
83%
GK saves
37%
17%
46%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+