FA Cup· Quarter-finals· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
Goalstotal 3.09
1.84home
0.88–2.80 safe0.62–3.06 safer1.25away
0.39–2.11 safe0.15–2.36 saferShots on targettotal 8.42
5.42home
3.56–7.27 safe3.06–7.77 safer3.01away
1.30–4.71 safe0.83–5.18 saferTotal shotstotal 23.20
13.84home
10.14–17.55 safe9.11–18.58 safer9.36away
5.98–12.74 safe5.05–13.67 saferShots in boxtotal 14.16
9.52home
7.00–12.03 safe6.13–12.90 safer4.65away
2.35–6.95 safe1.55–7.74 saferBlocked shotstotal 6.40
3.78home
2.19–5.36 safe1.66–5.89 safer2.62away
1.20–4.03 safe0.72–4.52 saferCornerstotal 9.10
5.39home
3.19–7.60 safe2.59–8.19 safer3.71away
1.73–5.69 safe1.20–6.23 saferPossession %
53.94home
47.62–60.25 safe46.02–61.85 safer46.99away
40.67–53.31 safe39.08–54.91 saferPassestotal 824
437home
371–502 safe354–520 safer388away
323–452 safe306–470 saferPass accuracy %
74.57home
70.35–78.79 safe69.05–80.09 safer68.94away
64.43–73.44 safe63.10–74.77 saferFoulstotal 27.05
12.89home
10.03–15.74 safe9.14–16.63 safer14.16away
11.22–17.11 safe10.30–18.03 saferOffsidestotal 4.32
2.33home
1.12–3.54 safe0.77–3.88 safer1.99away
0.83–3.15 safe0.49–3.49 saferYellow cardstotal 3.18
1.50home
0.45–2.56 safe0.17–2.83 safer1.68away
0.55–2.80 safe0.26–3.09 saferRed cardstotal 0.19
0.08home
0.00–0.23 safe0.00–0.39 safer0.10away
0.00–0.30 safe0.00–0.44 saferGK savestotal 5.64
2.62home
1.21–4.04 safe0.82–4.43 safer3.01away
1.46–4.57 safe1.03–5.00 safer| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.84 | 0.88–2.80 | 0.62–3.06 | 1.25 | 0.39–2.11 | 0.15–2.36 | 3.090.76–5.42 |
| Shots on target | 5.42 | 3.56–7.27 | 3.06–7.77 | 3.01 | 1.30–4.71 | 0.83–5.18 | 8.423.89–12.95 |
| Total shots | 13.84 | 10.14–17.55 | 9.11–18.58 | 9.36 | 5.98–12.74 | 5.05–13.67 | 23.2014.16–32.24 |
| Shots in box | 9.52 | 7.00–12.03 | 6.13–12.90 | 4.65 | 2.35–6.95 | 1.55–7.74 | 14.167.68–20.64 |
| Blocked shots | 3.78 | 2.19–5.36 | 1.66–5.89 | 2.62 | 1.20–4.03 | 0.72–4.52 | 6.402.38–10.41 |
| Corners | 5.39 | 3.19–7.60 | 2.59–8.19 | 3.71 | 1.73–5.69 | 1.20–6.23 | 9.103.79–14.42 |
| Possession % | 53.94 | 47.62–60.25 | 46.02–61.85 | 46.99 | 40.67–53.31 | 39.08–54.91 | — |
| Passes | 437 | 371–502 | 354–520 | 388 | 323–452 | 306–470 | 824659–990 |
| Pass accuracy % | 74.57 | 70.35–78.79 | 69.05–80.09 | 68.94 | 64.43–73.44 | 63.10–74.77 | — |
| Fouls | 12.89 | 10.03–15.74 | 9.14–16.63 | 14.16 | 11.22–17.11 | 10.30–18.03 | 27.0519.44–34.65 |
| Offsides | 2.33 | 1.12–3.54 | 0.77–3.88 | 1.99 | 0.83–3.15 | 0.49–3.49 | 4.321.27–7.37 |
| Yellow cards | 1.50 | 0.45–2.56 | 0.17–2.83 | 1.68 | 0.55–2.80 | 0.26–3.09 | 3.180.44–5.92 |
| Red cards | 0.08 | 0.00–0.23 | 0.00–0.39 | 0.10 | 0.00–0.30 | 0.00–0.44 | 0.190.00–0.83 |
| GK saves | 2.62 | 1.21–4.04 | 0.82–4.43 | 3.01 | 1.46–4.57 | 1.03–5.00 | 5.641.85–9.43 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
51%
23%
26%
Shots on target
75%
15%
Total shots
80%
15%
Shots in box
88%
Blocked shots
60%
15%
25%
Corners
65%
23%
Fouls
37%
56%
Offsides
46%
20%
34%
Yellow cards
35%
23%
42%
Red cards
84%
GK saves
35%
17%
48%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+