FA Cup· Quarter-finals· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
squad not published · form-based estimate| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.66 | 0.70–2.62 | 0.44–2.88 | 1.37 | 0.51–2.23 | 0.27–2.48 | 3.030.70–5.36 |
| Shots on target | 5.92 | 4.07–7.78 | 3.57–8.28 | 5.17 | 3.47–6.88 | 3.00–7.35 | 11.106.57–15.63 |
| Total shots | 14.87 | 11.17–18.57 | 10.14–19.60 | 10.12 | 6.74–13.50 | 5.81–14.43 | 24.9915.95–34.03 |
| Shots in box | 5.87 | 3.35–8.38 | 2.48–9.25 | 9.44 | 7.14–11.74 | 6.35–12.54 | 15.318.83–21.79 |
| Blocked shots | 3.38 | 1.80–4.97 | 1.26–5.50 | 3.82 | 2.40–5.23 | 1.92–5.72 | 7.203.18–11.22 |
| Corners | 5.28 | 3.08–7.49 | 2.48–8.08 | 4.67 | 2.69–6.65 | 2.16–7.19 | 9.954.64–15.27 |
| Possession % | 46.17 | 39.85–52.49 | 38.26–54.08 | 53.01 | 46.69–59.33 | 45.09–60.92 | — |
| Passes | 347 | 281–412 | 264–429 | 405 | 340–469 | 323–487 | 751586–916 |
| Pass accuracy % | 63.61 | 59.40–67.83 | 58.09–69.13 | 71.82 | 67.31–76.32 | 65.98–77.65 | — |
| Fouls | 11.74 | 8.88–14.60 | 8.00–15.48 | 12.85 | 9.90–15.79 | 8.99–16.71 | 24.5916.98–32.19 |
| Offsides | 1.64 | 0.44–2.85 | 0.09–3.20 | 1.77 | 0.61–2.93 | 0.27–3.26 | 3.410.36–6.46 |
| Yellow cards | 1.52 | 0.46–2.57 | 0.19–2.85 | 1.70 | 0.58–2.82 | 0.29–3.11 | 3.220.48–5.96 |
| Red cards | 0.06 | 0.00–0.21 | 0.00–0.37 | 0.05 | 0.00–0.24 | 0.00–0.38 | 0.110.00–0.75 |
| GK saves | 2.21 | 0.80–3.62 | 0.41–4.01 | 3.03 | 1.47–4.58 | 1.04–5.01 | 5.241.45–9.03 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
44%
24%
32%
Shots on target
53%
35%
Total shots
80%
15%
Shots in box
15%
79%
Blocked shots
36%
15%
49%
Corners
51%
36%
Fouls
37%
55%
Offsides
36%
23%
41%
Yellow cards
35%
23%
42%
Red cards
90%
GK saves
28%
17%
55%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+